St. Louis @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE -1½ +128 over St. Louis

Pinnacle -1½ +128 BET365 -1½ +125 SportsInteraction -1½ +118 BetOnlin-1½ +125 Bookmaker +113

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

MILWAUKEE -1½ +128 over St. Louis

7:40 PM EST. Brandon Woodruff (RHP - MIL) looked like a true ace in April (1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP in 29 IP), with near-elite skills to boot. They were backed by his 12.8% swing and miss rate, 68% first-pitch strike rate, and 33% ball%. His 96.8 mph fastball velocity marks the fourth straight season that his velocity has increased. Dude is an ACE. 

John Gant has a 2.15 ERA after six starts. Wow. How can that be? We have often discussed hockey as being the most luck-driven sport in the world but baseball isn’t far behind and John Gant is the beneficiary of extreme good fortune. In 29 innings, Gant has a BB/K split of 24/25. That’s right, 24 walks in 29 innings and he’s sporting a 2.15 ERA because of an out-of-this-world 90% strand rate. Gant’s 10.1% swing and miss rate doesn’t scream “effectively wild” either.  Gant comes in with an xERA of 6.02, which is almost four runs higher than his surface ERA. That’s a giant discrepancy that is in line for a massive correction. The Crew aren’t exactly the most disciplined team in the league but they have to know that Gant isn’t throwing strikes so one would think that discussion would be taking place with each and every hitter.  Gant's charmed life cannot continue much longer.

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Our Pick

MILWAUKEE -1½ +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)

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