Pinnacle +139 BET365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 BetOnline +138 Bookmaker +140

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Baltimore +130 over MIAMI

1:10 PM EST. Trevor Rogers (LHP - MIA) is good but the cat is out of the bag after posting a 2.40 ERA after three starts to go along with 23 K’s in 15 frames. We discussed Rogers very early in the year when he and the Fish were taking back +269 against Jacob deGrom and the Mets and then +149 again against the Braves. Rogers threw a gem in both games but the bullpen blew the latter in a game the Braves won, 7-6. We often discuss being “ahead of the curve”, which is precisely where we stood when we got behind Rogers early and now we’re ahead of the curve again in selling him here when the rest of the market is buying.

We’ve seen Rogers blow up before. 13 of his earned runs last season came in seven innings across two of his seven starts. That tanked his ERA and WHIP but there are more games like that on the horizon. You see, Rogers has a 50% first-pitch strike rate and a troubling 29%/50% groundball/fly-ball split. Combine walks with inevitable jacks allowed because his fly-ball rate is so high and the occasional blow-up is inevitable. Trevor Rogers now goes from a seriously significant underdog to a significant favorite and it is therefore the correct time to jump ship.

Bruce Zimmermann (LHP - BAL) is still flying under the radar, because he hasn’t done anything spectacular and probably won’t but like Rogers before him, we’re ahead of the curve on this lefty too.

Zimmerman is quietly putting up really impactful command sub-indicators (12.0% swing & miss rate 27% ball%, 65% first-pitch strike rate). They support significant gains in his overall skills and make him and the Orioles very worthy today taking back such a sweet overlay.

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