Tampa Bay @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay

Pinnacle -104 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 BetOnline -106 Bookmaker -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay

8:10 PM EST. Michael Wacha (RHP - TAM) has worked his way around some control issues to post some pretty good numbers through three starts. He’s fanned 12 batters per nine on the strength of a 16.9% swing & miss rate thus far but we’re not betting it lasts. You see, his line-drive rate is 35% and that means if the batters are’t striking out, they are making some serious hard contact. Wacha’s line-drive rate last game was 56% so what we’re seeing is a dude that walks people and gives up line drives in droves.

Jakob Junis (RHP - KC) was dominating during his three spring training appearances (10/0 K/BB in 7 IP). He carried that forward to his first start of 2021 (6/2 K/BB in 5 IP) and beyond. His sub-indicators have been solid too (12.1% swing & miss, 36% ball%). Overall, Junis has walked three and struck out 15 in 12 innings and he’ll now face a Rays’ squad that belted out 14 runs last night en route to their fifth straight win.

The point is that the Rays are hot and well regarded while the Royals are not hot and not well-regarded. That leaves us questioning the extremely enticing price on the Rays and after strong consideration, we’re left with a ticket on the Royals because the books are begging us to do otherwise.

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Our Pick

KANSAS CITY -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Toronto +109 over Tampa Bay
Milwaukee -101 over N.Y. Mets
N.Y. Yankees +105 over Houston
Boston +128 over Seattle
San Francisco +133 over San Diego