Pinnacle -1½ +146 BET365 -1½ +145 SportsInteraction -1½ +145  BetOnline -1½ +144 Bookmaker -1½ +145

Posted at 11:15 PM EST. 

MIAMI -1½ +146 over San Francisco

1:10 PM EST. The Marlins are -125 or thereabouts but we’re not interested in spotting a tag. Instead, we’ll count on Miami to win going away because if we’re going to trust that they are grossly undervalued here, then we’re going to trust that its chances of winning by two runs or more also hold great value. We also understand that there are plenty of folks who will insist that playing the home team at -1½ is a bad strategy, but we’re going to disagree because it’s figured into the line. If this game was in San Francisco for instance, Miami, with 9 full turns at bat, would be in the -1½ -130 range.

Pablo López (RHP - MIA) has a 4.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP after his first three starts. What that doesn’t reveal is that he had a 1.54 ERA and 0.77 WHIP after his first two starts. One bad start at Atlanta’s extreme hitter’s park and market perception changes like the wind. He succeeded by limiting nearly all hard contact (84.1 mph exit velocity) while keeping the ball on the ground (56%) and throwing an array of different offerings. Alex Wood (LHP - SF) is scheduled to make his 2021 debut against Miami's top-five OPS vs. LHP. Last year, Wood pitched 13 innings but give him credit for trying, as he spent the winter of 2019/20 with Driveline focused more on mechanics and less on strength/conditioning. Then he was off to the IL after one start with a shoulder issue, which lengthened the back/wrist/tricep/shoulder/elbow 5-season list. Over the past two seasons, he has thrown a total of 36 innings at this level. He was placed on the 10-day injured list Thursday, April 1 because of a back injury. Wood needed time to mend after an ablation procedure to help alleviate stiffness in his back. He threw three innings this past spring and none since March 9. Maybe he excels here but even if things go well, one has to wonder if he’ll even be allowed to go past four innings. Probably not and there’s also the more likely scenario that things don’t go well.

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