Houston @ SEATTLE
SEATTLE +113 over Houston

Pinnacle +113 BET365 +105 SportsInteraction +105  BetOnline +111 Bookmaker +105

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

SEATTLE +113 over Houston

9:10 PM EST. On April 11th, we wrote an entire piece on Seattle’s starter today, Chris Flexen, citing him as a nice buy-low target. Flexen was in Minnesota that day and the Mariners were taking back +165. Dude went out and gave up eight hits and six runs in five innings and was yanked. The Mariners would rally from six down to win 8-6 and we were very fortunate to cash that ticket but more importantly, Flexen’s stock did not rise. If anything, it dropped and we’re once again the benefactors of his weak (on the surface) pitching line that day. After two starts, Flexen’s batted ball profile is elite with just 13% line-drives (league average is 21%). He also has 11 K’s in 10 frames with an elite 68% first-pitch strike rate.

We started out that piece about Chris Flexen with this:

Chris Flexen has given us something to look at. The changes to his game from the last time he was a major leaguer are substantive, so much that it’s fair to draw such a conclusion after just one appearance (now two). Of course, we can’t speak to the implications of the changes. We don’t know that he’ll be a money-winner for us, but the important thing is that the changes are present, and that acknowledging changes in any starter can benefit your bankroll, no matter for how long. You can read that entire piece here

https://sportswagers.ca/mlb/picks.php?pid=25150

For the Astronauts, it’ll be the extremely overvalued Zack Greinke. In three starts covering 18 frames, Greinke has 10 K’s, an 8.2% swinging strike rate and a fastball that tops off at 87.2 MPH. His batted ball profile is a below average 36%/21%/43% grounders/line-drives/fly-balls. His 4.08 ERA is almost two full runs lower than his xERA of 5.83. It may look like graceful aging but his smarts won't be able to outrun his diminishing stuff for much longer and Houston should not be priced in this range, on the road no less, with Greinke going. A definite overlay here.

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Our Pick

SEATTLE +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110