Pinnacle +127 BET365 +130 SportsInteraction +130 BetOnline +126  Bookmaker +130

Posted at 3:20 PM EST. 

St. Louis +130 over PHILADELPHIA

7:10 PM EST. Another overlay here, as Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals is without question the inferior starter on paper. A Combination of COVID diagnosis and left oblique injury made last season one to forget for Martinez. The results were ugly when he did pitch, which questions his long-term future as a starter. Velocity and K% upticks from 2019 say he could be effective out of the 'pen, but with injury history, role uncertainty, and buoying skills, he's a risky investment in the Baseball Fantasy world but for one start here, we’ll see what he can do. What we like is that Martinez has a 51% ground-ball rate after two starts. His low 58% strand rate says he’s been very unlucky. His 6.31 ERA is far above his 4.77 xERA.

The 2020 season was kind to Zach Eflin (RHP - PHI), as he posted career-best ratios. In 59 innings, he won four games and finished with 70 strikeouts, a 3.97 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. While his 2020 growth was supported by skills, his results could be near his ceiling. Even with a curveball that can create swings and misses, his career K% and swing and miss rate point to a K% drop in 2021. His sinker can induce ground balls, but his 4.61 xERA points to an ERA closer to 4.00 rather than an ERA that improves. Zach Eflin is playing with a 38%/38% groundball/fly-ball split. At this park in this day and age, that’s playing with fire so let’s roll the dice with a price on the Phillies in what we perceive as a 50/50 proposition

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