Pinnacle +116 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +118  BetOnline +117  Bookmaker +118

Posted at 3:20 PM EST. 

Miami +120 over SAN FRANCISCO

7:10 PM EST. Daniel Castano (LHP - MIA) was a proverbial throw-in piece in the Marcell Ozuna trade with St. Louis, Castano has figured out the formula a pitcher needs to make the majors with a sub-90 mph fastball. 6’3” and 231 pounds, Castano uses 70-grade command of a bunch of fringe-average-to-solid-average stuff to keep hitters off balance. He has a high-80s fastball with natural sink, a looping curve, and his change-up is his best pitch with two-plane break and arm-side run. Furthermore, he lives almost exclusively low in the zone, so the contact made against him rarely leaves the park, let alone the infield. Castano can put his pitches where he wants them and it makes the whole profile play up despite below-average velocity. The problem remains that major league hitters tend to figure this profile out after seeing it a few times, and there’s no more tricks after that, so in order to project in the rotation, he will need to find a whole other gear on his fastball, or the ceiling here is realistically a mop-up, multi-inning lefty reliever. Castano still bears watching in the event of a grade bump and added velocity (stranger things have happened) and he’s still only 26. The profile would really tick up with his plus plus command but we can get on board with him for at least this one start because he and the Marlins are an underdog and because the Giants team batting average of .207 makes them very beatable.

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - SF) has two sparking starts to begin the year (on paper). Dude carries a 0.82 ERA into this start with four walks and 12 K’s in 11 innings. What the surface stats do not reveal is that he pitched against Colorado at Oracle Park and then pitched against the Padres at Petco in which he pitched just five full innings. To recap, DeSclafani has started at two pitcher-friendly parks and against one brutally bad offense. Anthony D is not some young phenom. Dude is 31-years old and the Reds got tired of waiting for him to come around. Any hopes of DeSclafani building on his mildly promising 2019 were dashed by a shoulder strain in July and then a subsequent implosion. K%, BB%, and expected stats swung violently in the wrong direction, while an unfortunate strand rate, HR/F added insult to injury. Last year, he made nine appearances with seven coming as a starter. He had one quality start and one win while losing two games and posting a 7.22 ERA and 1.69. WHIP. We repeat, the Reds got tired of waiting for him to reach his 4th-starter upside and frankly speaking, it hardly seems worth waiting for. Based on two good starts to the year after a long history of mediocrity and disappointment, he and the Giants are overpriced to be sure.

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