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Posted at 3:20 PM EST. 

Baltimore +110 over TEXAS

8:05 PM EST. Remember two years ago when RHP Mike Foltynewicz (RHP - TEX) got Cy Young votes? A precipitous decline concluded with DFA (Designated for Assignment) after only one start, as his standout skill (velocity) deserted him. IF he's healthy, IF gets his velocity back, and IF he finds a role are all big ifs and now Folty is favored because why? In 11 innings, nothing looks good. He’s walked six and struck out 10 but his 5,9% swing and miss rate comes nowhere close to supporting the K’s. His groundball/fly-ball rate of 36%50% is another warning sign to steer clear. He comes in with an ERA of 4.09 but we’re going to suggest you pay more attention to his xERA of 5.91 for guidance.

Jorge Lopez has an ERA of 11.42 and that is why the Rangers, a team that was projected to lose 100 games is favored here. Dig in, as Lopez has been the victim of extreme bad luck. Lopez is 28-years old and is still trying to find a path to viability but he has upped his sinker usage and it has resulted in a pretty sweet 56% groundball rate over his first two starts. He has 9 K’s in 9 innings which is supported by a decent 12% swing and miss rate and a very good 67% first-pitch strike rate. Lopez’s 11.42 ERA is the direct result of an extreme and unsustainably unlucky 33% strand rate. Texas is coming off a sweep of the Rays in Tampa so if you bet them here, you may win but you’re late to the party. Baltimore just got swept at home by Seattle so if you’re selling now, you’re also late to the party. Remember, buy-low/sell-high and it will benefit you, like the Oompa, Loompas, loopy dee doos.

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