Atlanta @ CHICAGO
Atlanta +102 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle +102 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 BetOnline -105 Bookmaker +100

Posted at 2:00 PM EST. 

Atlanta +102 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Ahhh, Friday afternoon at Wrigley. It doesn’t get much better than that only in this case, it does, because the Braves made a late starting pitching change from Drew Smyly to Kyle Wright and as a result, the Cubbies go from the underdog to the favorite based on it. That’s a market inefficiency we can try and take advantage of. We discuss lines based on starting pitchers in our Arizona/Washington writeup today.

To us, the starters here matter very little, thus. if Atlanta was a favorite over Zach Davies with Smyly going, they indeed should be the chalk with Kyle Wright (RHP - ATL) going also. Kyle Wright’s post-season perfectly encapsulates his MLB career: Starts both brilliant (NLDS G3; 6 scoreless IP; 7/2 K/BB) and mind-numbingly atrocious (NLCS G3; 0.2 IP, 7 ER). The bad overshadows the good right now, but physical build, raw stuff, and pedigree can be tempting the morning after he dominates but the trick is trying to figure out when he will or will not. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley this afternoon against a Cubs’ team batting .163 (dead last in the majors), we’ll take our chances that gives the Braves a chance to win.

Wright’s inconsistencies aside, we’d still take him 100% of the time over Zach Davies (RHP - CHC). Last year, it was the same old story for this soft tossing stiff, as he leaned on his best pitch (change-up) to deliver a long-awaited breakout... right? Not so fast: K% and swing & miss rate were merely average, and his walk, hit and strand rates were all fortunate. His success vL was a mirage driven by a 21% hit rate. He definitely took a step forward, but it only got him to 10 steps below average instead of 20. Davies throws 87 MPH on his best day with a swinging strike rate of about 8%. He is at the mercy of his defense and batted balls in play. Wrong side favored.

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Our Pick

Atlanta +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110