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Posted at 10:55 AM EST. 

MILWAUKEE -1½ +125 over Chicago

1:40 PM EST. Corbin Burnes (RHP - MIL) is showing that his 2020 breakout shouldn't be dismissed. He owns an electric K/BB split of 0/20 in 12 innings over two starts.  While that's a tiny sample size, his more granular skills validate his early results (17.9% swing and miss rate, 70.7% first-pitch strike rate and an off the charts 58% ground-ball rate). To top it off, Burnes’ is limiting hard contact against him (86.4 mph exit velocity), which is another elite mark. 

It’s so beautiful to see Jake Arrieta (RHP- CHC) sitting with a 2-0 record and 2.25 ERA after two starts because we can actually get Milwaukee at a bargain here. This might be the biggest starting pitching mismatch on the board today but it is not close to being priced as such. In other words, Arrieta’s weak skills will absolutely be exposed at some point because his surface stats are not sustainable. Arrieta has exhibited a drop in velocity and an increase in exit velocity on balls put in play. His fly-ball rate is up to 47% and his groundball rate is down to 26%. His swing & miss rate is a weakening 7.5% and his first-pitch strike rate is 53%. Jake Arrieta has zero skills trending the right away and every skill trending the wrong way in posting a  2.25 ERA/5.46 xERA. Dude has been extremely lucky with an 83% strand rate and he now becomes one of the best early sell targets of the second week. SELL! 

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