Pinnacle -1½ +124 BET365 -1½ +128 SportsInteraction -1½ +127 BetOnline -1½ +120 Bookmaker -1½

Posted at 10:55 AM EST. 

L.A. Angels -1½ +128 over KANSAS CITY

2:10 PM EST. In a bases loaded jam in the ninth inning with two out last night, Royals pitcher Greg Holland spiked a slider in the dirt. The ball ricocheted off catcher Salvador Perez and David Fletcher (who was on third), anticipating a wild pitch and immediately broke for home. The baseball gods would not have it though, as the ball bounced off Jared Walsh in the batter’s box and redirected right back in front of Perez. Fletcher tried to reverse course, hitting the brakes some 20 feet down the line and sliding desperately back for third but Perez’s throw was too good. Game over.  

The Angels outhit the Royals 12-5 but left 11 men on base, went one for nine with runners in scoring position, and permitted what proved to be the decisive run to score in the fifth after catcher Kurt Suzuki dropped a popup in foul ground. These are only a handful of things that bounced wrong for the Angels but there were a handful more. The point is, luck plays a big role in the outcome of games and once again proves the point that nobody can predict outcomes. Play value and let the chips fall where they may while never spotting big prices in any team sport, which brings us to this pitching mismatch. 

Before we discuss the starters, it’s worth noting that the Halos have been hit hard by the injury bug, which is another reason we get them at a bargain today. Earlier Tuesday, the Angels put catcher Max Stassi and outfielder Juan Lagares on the 10-day injured list. An hour before the first pitch last night, left-fielder Justin Upton was scratched with back stiffness. Anthony Rendon was placed on the IL on Monday but we couldn’t care less, as there are always guys waiting in the wings to make a splash when an opportunity arises. 

Then of course there is Brad Keller, who provided plenty of late value in 2020 when he recorded a 2.47 ERA across nine starts. He averaged more than 6 innings per start, and held the opposition scoreless five times and to just one run in another outing but the skills didn't support the stellar surface stats. 

The first thing that jumps out is that Keller doesn't miss many bats. His four-seamer, which he throws about 38% of the time, had a sub-5% whiff rate and lost some zip. A BB% that hovers around league average is a little too high for a pitcher that doesn't get many strikeouts. While he posted a 1.02 WHIP in 2020, he's yet to record an xWHIP under 1.40. A heavy ground-ball tilt and a home park that suppresses home runs (-16% LHB, -20% RHB) should help him keep the homers in check, but he has certainly been lucky that so few fly balls have left the park. Keller outperformed his expected ratios for the third consecutive season, but the size of the gap in 2020 is unsustainable. His consistently low K% is a bomb waiting to go off, thus, he'll likely do more harm than good to your bankroll. Keller's career has been a complete fluke and it’s time to attack. 

Griffin Canning (RHP - LAA) is a solid play for Wednesday’s start against a Royals club which owns a 27.2% strikeout figure through the first 11 days of the season. Canning missed a lot of bats and showed solid velocity in his April 8 debut against the Blue Jays. We’ll discuss Canning more at a later date but for now, let’s mark this as a pitching mismatch that is not priced as such.

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