Oakland @ ARIZONA
Oakland -1½ +150 over ARIZONA

Pinnacle -1½ +147 BET365 -1½ +150 SportsInteraction -1½ +138 BetOnline -1½ +150 Bookmaker -1½

Posted at 1:15 PM EST. 

Oakland -1½ +150 over ARIZONA

3:40 PM EST. Zac Gallen (RHP - ARI) comes off the 10-day injured list due to a hairline stress fracture of his right lateral forearm, to make his first start of the year. Last year, Gallen’s stalling of K-BB% and swing & miss rate made it more a year of treading water than showing growth, although his groundball rate and velocity gains are encouraging. However, there is also a sizable gap between his career 2.78 ERA and 3.86 xERA in majors that sets him up to be overvalued this spring, so don't let his 2020 results lead you astray. There's a good skill foundation here, but he's not an ace yet, he’s pitching for a weak team and his mound opponent is an ace that isn’t priced like one.

Jesús Luzardo (LHP - OAK) has thrown two very average games in his first two starts of 2021, however, those starts came against two tough lineups in the Astros and Dodgers. Today he travels to Arizona to face a Diamondbacks’ squad that he dominated last year in one start but it’s much more than that. Luzardo has a 6.10 ERA after two starts and that’s a beautiful thing because we get him at a pick-em today when in fact, he should be much higher. He struck out 14 baters in his first 10 innings. Dude features a nasty curveball/change-up combo and mid-90s heater. A favorable swing & miss rate points to his strikeout upside.  His elite xERA is built on good command and a lot of missed bats. He's unhittable against lefties (7.0 K/BB vL) but also knows how to handle opposite-sided bats. In his third start after two his paper stats look weak,  Luzardo is a strong bankroll builder until the market catches up to how good he is.

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Our Pick

Oakland -1½ +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110