Pinnacle +147 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +150 BetOnline +147 Bookmaker +146

Posted at 12:50 PM EST. 

Miami +147 over ATLANTA

7:20 PM EST. Max Fried (RHP) exited his last start with a right calf injury. While most of the market will not even be aware, it might be noteworthy because Fried was riding high before back spasms shelved him for two starts last year and what followed was some sketchy results that dampened his "breakout" only slightly. Overall, xBB%, swing & miss rate and groundballs say emphatically that he was the same pitcher as in 2019, but luck swung his way this time. Look to xERA, xWHIP for reality: dude is a solid and consistent 2nd tier starter but we also have to question how he’s feeling. His line-drive or Hard-Hit rate is 40% after two starts, he’s missing the plate frequently and his WHIP is 2.43. After two starts, improvement is likely but regardless, he’s overpriced against a Marlins’ squad that is off to a bit of a slow start but remain a very tough out.

We mentioned above that Fried’s hard-hit balls rate was 40% after two starts, thus it’s worth noting that Pablo Lopez’s (RHP - MIA) hard-hit rate is 15% after two starts. That’s the best in the biz right now. This pitch-mix tinkering starter may have found a winning formula: 1) Change-up is his best offering (19% swing & miss rate), so he’s throwing it more; 2) added a cut fastball in 2020, which boosted both swinging misses/K% and ground-ball rate. His skills fully support his short-season gains from last year and small sample size from this year. Now combine the two and the sample size keeps getting bigger. Lopez is consistently outstanding with a 55%/17%/28% groundball/line-drive/flyball rate split over his last 10 starts at this level. He’s absolutely worth getting behind at prices like this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.