Cincinnati @ SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO -108 over Cincinnati

Pinnacle -108 BET365 -115 SportsInteraction -114 BetOnline -111 Bookmaker -112

Posted at 2:10 PM EST. 

SAN FRANCISCO -108 over Cincinnati

9:45 PM EST. While they had no true standout offensive player in their annihilation of the Pirates only serves to underscore the truth of the Reds season thus far: The Reds’ bats are absolutely on fire, well sort of. Nick Castellanos has a 1.116 OPS when he’s not yelling in the pitcher's face and starting brawls. Tyler Naquin, allowed to walk by Cleveland despite its years-long search for a single competent outfielder, has a 1.195 OPS, 14 RBI’s and five jacks. Four other starters boast an OPS over 1.000 (as does pinch-hitter Aristides Aquino. It turns out last year’s strategy of compiling a lineup entirely of outfielders was stupid and wrong, but this year’s strategy of compiling a lineup entirely of third baseman is genius and correct. Kidding aside, the numbers are unsustainable and thus, now would be a good time to fade the Reds as road chalk after they returned to earth in the final 14 innings of their weekend series against Arizona.

Aaron Sanchez (RHP - SF) looked pretty solid in his first start since 2019 shoulder surgery, tossing five frames of 1 earned ball against the Padres while notching four strikeouts with no walks. After his last start in August of 2019 came shoulder surgery that shelved him in 2020. He also struggled from 2017 through 2019 with seemingly chronic finger and blister issues that impacted his performance in a career-worst 2019 campaign (5.89/5.20 ERA/xERA over 131 IP). However, Sanchez has always possessed good velocity and was reportedly touching the high-90’s in the last showcase bullpen session before his signing. Generating huge ground-ball percentages along with too many walks, Sanchez was very effective before the injuries set in, and he’s still just 29 years old. In his first start, he induced 71% grounders and he’ll now face a Reds lineup that posted a .651 OPS in their first road trip of the year in hitter-friendly Chase field this past weekend.

Wade Miley (LHP - CIN) shined in his first start, throwing six shutout frames at the Pirates. He struck out six while allowing just two lousy hits. That’s nice but Pittsburgh could make Jamie Moyer look like Clayton Kershaw so we’re not going to put much weight on one start. In his first year with the Reds, not much went right for Miley. His on-field results were unimpressive, and he landed on IL (groin, shoulder) after two of his four starts. His consistent groundball lean keeps his hopes for rebound alive, but just barely. Given weak K%, shaky xBB% and bloated xERA history, there is little reason to trust him in this spot. The Giants opened as high as -121 in this spot but the efficient market has been driving it down all day. By game time, don’t be surprised to see the Reds as the chalk so we’re going to wait until after dinner to pull the trigger here. No official bet right now but there will be one at a better price later.

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Our Pick

SAN FRANCISCO -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110