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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Detroit +165 over CLEVELAND

1:10 PM EST. We’re not going to try and sell you on Jose Urena (RHP - DET). Dude had a rough 2020 and a rough first outing this year. He was shelved by COVID last year until early Sept, then a fractured forearm in his final start of the season. Two years of poor health have helped expose the fine line he was already walking with ground-ball-fueled back-of-the-rotation skills and he may not be out of the woods yet. However, he was throwing an average of 94 MPH on his fastball in his season debut in which he posted a well above average 16% swing & miss rate but too many pitches out of the zone and a 43% strand percentage knocked him out of his first start early. Our expectations today on Urena are tempered to be sure but this has nothing to do with getting behind him. He just happens to be Detroit’s starter today.

Logan Allen priced in this range? Really? Dude is a 5th starter on a team that will struggle to score runs and now he’s priced like he’s Jacob deGrom? Allen is a 24-year-old lefty with a weak profile. When the Indians traded Adam Plutko to the Orioles on March 27th, Allen was pencilled in as the fifth starter. Up to that point, he was their sixth starter. In a small sample size of 38 MLB innings, his skills history is not promising. He struggled badly with control and command in both 2019 and 2020. His swing & miss rate, K% and K-rates are barely minor-league worthy. Allen did not pitch out of character in his season debut when he threw 52% first-pitch strikes, had a weak swing and miss rate of 9.7%, walked two and struck out three in five frames and posted a 1.40 WHIP with an 83% strand rate and 5.16 xERA. And for what it’s worth, the Tigers are better against lefties.

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