Philadelphia @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1½ +130 over Philadelphia

Pinnacle -1½ +127 BET365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction  -1½ +125 BetOnlin -1½ +127

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

ATLANTA -1½ +130 over Philadelphia

7:05 PM EST. Drew Smyly (LHP - ATL) draws a Philadelphia lineup that has been a top-10 offense in the first 10 days of the season. The lefty's curveball (15.6% career swing & miss) backs a powerful K rating versus Philadelphia's 34.1% K% vs. LHP. In his April 6 start at Washington, Smyly struck out eight batters and allowed two earned runs in six innings. Lots of good signs here for Smyly, including a bump in velocity (2.6 mph), which continued positive trends from 2019 that will push his K% and swinging strikes into rarified territory. There is also an increased usage of an effective curve and a rising ground-ball rate that was 50% in his first start, not to mention an elite 14% line-drive rate. What’s there not to like?

Matt Moore (LHP - PHI) returned from pitching a year in Japan with four K’s, four BB’s and two earned in 3.1 innings versus the Mets on April 5. His 21% career K% may fall behind MLB strikeout pace, and giving up plenty of hard contact carries lots of risk in this spacious park. Matt Moore had a 6.8% swing & miss rate in his season debut, which means he’s at the mercy of good luck on batted balls in play and his defense. Moore posted a 7.45 xERA in his first start with a 2.40 WHIP, thus if he wants to resume his career after this season, he should advise his agent to get in touch with some people in Korea. Until then, he’s pretty good fade material.

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Our Pick

ATLANTA -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110