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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +138 over Colorado

4:35 PM EST. Colorado is coming off seven straight home games to begin the season and in those seven games against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks respectively, the Rocks won three and lost four while scoring 44 runs. The Rocks scored 23 runs while winning the last two games of the series. The point is that Colorado looks so much better on paper than they actually are and we’re likely going to attack that all weekend. Now the Rockies move to a park that will expose how vulnerable they truly are.

The Rockies have a few good hitters. Trevor Story is legitimately great. Charlie Blackmon is aging gracefully. Err, Chris Owings had a promising 44-PA stint. However, every other hitter who sported a positive Deserved Run Created (DRC+) last season is gone: Kevin Pillar, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Kemp. The only player of note the Rockies added to the infield this winter is Mr. Potato Head (hopefully we didn’t insult anyone) understudy C.J. Cron, who hit .190 for the Tigers last year.

In addition to Nolan Arenado and David Dahl leaving town was the departure of the Rockies’ entire catching platoon, Rockies lifer Tony Wolters and Drew Butera. And what did the Rockies add? Minor league contracts, mostly. It’s just as bleak in the outfield. Blackmon is still producing but turns 35 in July and serves no purpose on this team. Raimel Tapia redefines the term “empty average,” as he just put up a weak DRC+. Sam Hilliard was abysmal in limited playing time last season. This team is horrible but Coors Field can mask it, San Francisco’s Oracle Park cannot.

Colorado’s weak lineup will now face Johnny Cueto (RHP - SF). Cueto had a decent season debut with 7 K’s in 6.1 frames but he also walked three. What we like is a 16.7% swing & miss rate, which fully sports the K’s. As he enters his age-35 season, there's far more downside than upside in Cueto’s forecast but as a veteran pitcher coming off a promising start against the Padres, there’s no reason why he can’t at least replicate it in some way. Cueto takes a big step down from facing San Diego’s nine to facing Colorado’s nine.

The Giants dropped 4 out of 4 to the Rockies in 2020 but they snatched two out of three from the Padres at Petco. They averaged 5.5 runs per game vs. lefties last year and they’ve taken two of their first three vs. southpaws to start the year, averaging 5.3 runs per game. They’ll see a lefty here in Austin Gomber (LHP - COL).

Gomber appeared in 14 games last year with four of those coming as a starter. He put up a 1.86 ERA over 29 frames but trust us when we scream at the top of our lungs that his success was purely luck-driven. Note xERA (5,40) and xWHIP (1.66), which have uh-oh written all over it. Gomber’s walks remain an issue while K% is merely average, and his subpar swing & miss rate suggests even his average strikeout rate isn't sustainable. GB% is also in question, as rates in minors were closer to 40%. In his first start this year, Gomber walked seven (!) and struck out three but escaped with a 3.00 ERA despite a 16.99 xERA. In that season debut, he had a weak 8.2% swing & miss rate and a 2.67 WHIP. Gomber and the Rocks are lined up to lose going away.

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