Arizona @ COLORADO
COLORADO -1 +164 over Arizona

Pinnacle -1½ +164 BET365 -1½ +160 SportsInteraction -1½ +160 BetOnline -1½ +160

Posted at 4:00 PM EST. 

COLORADO -1½ +164 over Arizona

8:40 PM EST. We literally have no idea which team is going to win today but one thing we know we must do is play one of them on the run line with a big significant take-back because chances are extremely high that the winner will cross the finish line with a two run or more victory. So why Colorado? Well, for one, they’re the bigger price and secondly, for whatever it’s worth, Colorado’s starter is probably more reliable.

Try to absorb Antonio Senzatela’s (RHP - COL) ERA/xERA history without getting whiplash. Small sample is as good as it gets for this groundballer whose best 2020 moments came at home (2.10 ERA over 34 IP). Career best BB%, HR/F, H%, S% all fueled this profit anomaly and all are poised for regression. We’ll plan our attack on Senzatela on another day, as this wager is all about attacking a stiff that just got paid.

We could look up to see who Madison Bumgarner’s (LHP, ARI) agent is because it would be interesting to know who the greatest salesman on the planet is (no disrespect to Tanner Roark’s agent) but we’ll leave that for another time. What we know is that Mad-Bum inked a five-year, $85 million contract with the Diamondbacks over the winter. That’s staggering and also one of the worst deals in the history of sports. Dude that agreed to that should never be allowed to negotiate anything ever again.

Mad-Bum’s decline went from gradual to plummet in a flash, age 31 or not, back strain or not. A big drop in whiffs on his four-seamer and curve make chances for another flash of good skills a shaky bet, especially with 3-mph drop in velocity. Among all the trends, the line-drive column looks especially ominous. Arizona’s GM banked on a rebound and for $10 for advice, we could have saved the D-Backs 85 mil. The Diamondbacks’ brass might wish they had a DeLorean, as Bumgarner has compiled a horrid 8.53 ERA and 1.74 WHIP through his last 32 innings around an IL stint and things are not better under the hood.

His ability to miss bats has greatly deteriorated (6.1 xK’s/9). Bumgarner’s puny 7.6% swing and miss rate ranked 108th of 118 MLB starting pitchers who logged at least 30 innings in 2020. His velocity has plummeted to a career-low. According to Statcast, Bumgarner ranked in the bottom 1% in MLB in fastball velocity and Barrel%. He also ranks near the bottom in hard-hit%, so while his hr/f figures to regress a bit, it hasn’t been bad luck and a career-high fly-ball rate has exacerbated the problem. It’s mind boggling that Arizona agreed to 5 years at 17 mil per season but that matters not. What’s beautiful is that we get to (hopefully) fade him for five more years.


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Our Pick

COLORADO -1 +164 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.28)

San Francisco +110 over PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore +140 over MIAMI
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay
Toronto +117 over BOSTON