Tampa Bay @ BOSTON
Tampa Bay +107 over BOSTON

Pinnacle +107 BET365 +100 SportsInteraction +101 BetOnline +106

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

Tampa Bay +107 over BOSTON

1:10 PM EST. Off an extremely dramatic win last night, we’re going to trust that the Red Sox are a great fade today as the chalk. Last night the Red Sox trailed 3-1 in the 8th, 3-2 in the 9th, 4-3 in the 11th and 5-4 in the 12th before a two-run RBI double by J.D. Martinez knocked in both the tying and winning runs. The Red Sox celebration lasted well into the night and they’re back this afternoon for a matinee start. Huge letdown spot for the average host.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP - BOS) was solid in a five-frame season debut (5.1 innings), getting soft contact and allowing just one earned run to the Orioles but current Rays bats have big aggregate numbers against Eovaldi (1.012 OPS). In the opener, Eovaldi posted a horrible 37% first-pitch strike rate and only struck out four in 5.1 frames. He also had an 80% strand rate.

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP - TAM) came in with a 253 ADP (Average Draft Position) in 2021 drafts, which is a market reflection and reveals how overlooked he is. Dude attacked hitters in 2020 (31% ball%) while missing a lot of their bats (13.2% swing & miss rate). He didn’t walk a batter in his season debut and it’s also worth noting that the Red Sox have been horrible against lefties this year with a third worst ,449 OPS with only Seattle and the Crew below them. Incidentally, Milwaukee has just 10 AB’s v lefties while Boston has 54.

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

San Francisco +110 over PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore +140 over MIAMI
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay
Toronto +117 over BOSTON