Pinnacle -106 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 BetOnline -104

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. 

Houston -104 over L.A. ANGELS

4:07 PM EST. Zack Greinke (RHP - HOU) shut down the Athletics in his initial start of the 2021 season, going six scoreless innings with a 4/0 K/BB. A trip to Angel Stadium is something he typically looks forward to, as in 12 career starts there, he is 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 83 innings. We faded Greinke in his first start but he was favored that day in Oakland and now comes in as a small underdog. The Astronauts had the Angels down 4-0 early yesterday and 5-3 late (in the eighth), thus, this wager is twofold. It’s a case of sticking with it while also fading L.A.’s overpriced starter.

Halfway into last season covering his first five starts Dylan Bundy (RHP - LAA), was anchoring the Angels staff with a 2.48 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while looking like an ace. His 4.09 ERA and 1.24 after that point were more pedestrian. What should we expect going forward? There are things to like here, but his future success is not assured.

Good: Fly balls stayed at 2019 level, a step forward for homerun control.

Good: He continued the trend of throwing his best pitches (slider, curve) more often, and his fastball a career-low 34%.

Bad: His performance outstripped his peripherals, thanks to HR/F and H% good fortune.

Bad: Fastball velocity continued a steady decline, and is approaching territory where few can succeed in the modern game.

Puzzling: K% and BB% improvements came with no real change in skills. Let's be real. The year-to-year correlation of HR/F rates for pitchers is almost non-existent. League average is 15% HR/F, and that's where we should expect him to be. Maybe Bundy did find something to help curb the gopher ball, but it's a fool's bet to expect it to carry forward.

Furthermore, we need to recognize that he was great for five starts, but he's strung together five great starts before. Based on just five starts, we can't say he was a different pitcher in 2020. We also can't say he wasn't. The fact is that his performance was partially encouraging, but basically consistent with the past, and ultimately it probably shouldn't move the needle of expectations, except that now he's a year older and has lost a tick more velocity. His Average Draft Position of 103 suggested fantasy GMs gave too much weight to those 5 starts and it’s a reflection of the market to be sure. Bundy is overpriced and we’re on it.

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