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Posted March 16

Miami Marlins

Season win % over/under = 44.5% or 45%

If total is 44.5%:

44.5% of 162 games is 72.09. The Marlins would need to go 73-89 to cash the overs and 72-90 to cash the unders.

45% of 162 games is 72.90. The Marlins would need to go 73-89 to cash the overs and 72-90 to cash the unders.

Key Additions (projected 2021 WARP): Adam Duvall, (2.0), Anthony Bass (0.8), Adam Cimber, Dylan Floro, John Curtiss

Key Subtractions: Brandon Kintzler (0.3), José Ureña

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Marlins

2020 Record: 31-29, 2nd in NL East

The 2020 season was chock-full of surprises, but perhaps none were more startling than the Miami Marlins not only making it to, but advancing in, the postseason. Yes, they were helped by the expanded playoff format, and yes, they suffered their fair share of embarrassments along the way, but at the end of the day, you are what your record says you are, and by that standard the 2020 Marlins were among the top-half of the teams in the league. Better yet, there’s relatively little reason to think the Marlins were a one-year wonder: short-season variance aside, they are young, talented, and should only get better, especially under the stewardship of new GM Kim Ng. 

The Marlins have good young pitching, an elite farm system, a lineup that’s already proven it can exceed expectations, and a payroll with plenty of room for growth. The only catch? They’re still the Marlins. Well, that, and they don’t play in the NL Central.

Miami’s Lineup

The Marlins added Adam Duvall to a group that scored just 4.23 runs per game last season, tied for 22nd in the league. That ought to do it. Ok, I guess we can dive a bit deeper here, even if that means we’ll be putting more work into this squad than the Marlins did this offseason. Seriously, we haven’t seen such disappointment in a Duvall-related offseason since the Jaguars re-upped Blake Bortles. 

To be fair, there’s some reason to believe Don Mattingly’s lineup will produce modestly better results than it did a year ago. For one, they’ll get a full year of Starling Marte, who is probably their best overall player at present. Also, Duvall is here now, and uh, I guess that really might kind of be it? 

Even if we give the benefit of the double to Role 55-ish dudes like Brian Anderson and Corey Dickerson, this lineup has as much room for regression as it does improvement. When he wasn’t busy encouraging his teammates to play through positive COVID-19 tests, Miguel Rojas put up a career year at the plate, posting as many WARP in 40 games as he had in any regular-length season since 2018. We’ll bet the under on a repeat. Jesús Aguilar had a nice bounce-back year, but is still just one season removed from being unplayable. Garrett Cooper has strung together about a full season’s worth of solid performance now, but he’s hardly a safe bet to produce either.

In short, the only way the 2021 Marlins will hit better than a year ago is if one or more of their high-risk, high-upside bats clicks. Maybe Isan Díaz is finally ready for a breakout. Maybe exquisitely named shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm spent the offseason learning to make contact. Perhaps J.J. Bleday will reach the majors sooner than we think. Or maybe they’ll all go the way of Lewis Brinson, Jorge Alfaro, Monte Harrison, and the rest of the last crop of Marlins prospects: belly-up. 

Sure, if Rojas, Dickerson, and Anderson all perform up to their potential, and if one of Chisholm, Bleday, or Jesús Sánchez breaks out, and if Díaz, Brinson, or Alfaro proves to be a late-bloomer, this could be a halfway-decent group and crush this number. Chances are, however, that it falls somewhere in the middle and that’s perfect from our objective. 

The Starters

The 2021 Marlins might not score many runs, but there’s a chance they won’t allow many, either. Miami is loaded with talented young arms that could form the backbone of a contending team for a half-decade … or in a traditional Marlins contention cycle, about 18 months. Here’s how their rotation could shark out by Opening Day: 

Sandy Alcantara: A 25-year-old right-hander who’s already made an All-Star game and who looks ready to pitch at the middle-front of a first-division rotation for quite a while. Provides extra value in that his success makes the Cardinals look bad. 

Sixto Sánchez: One of the best pitching prospects in the game who’s already experienced a measure of success and who earns Pedro comps based not only on his statue, but on his stuff, too. Incredible nickname potential. 

Pablo López: Another 25-year-old righty who quietly had the best year among Marlins starters last season. Essentially the platonic ideal of a No. 3/4 starter.

Trevor Rogers: A 23-year-old southpaw prospect who more than held his own in seven major-league starts last season. Back-end floor with mid-rotation upside, and ready to help right now. 

Elieser Hernandez: Admittedly not as interesting as the rest of the names in this group, but can provide plenty of value as a cost-controlled innings-eater. Seems destined to one day be a Pirate and/or Athletic.

Would it have been nice to see the Marlins supplement this group with a veteran or two to take some of the pressure off so many relatively unproven arms? Sure. But I get it: once you shell out that Duvall money, there’s not much left to go around. 

The Bullpen

The Marlins don’t just have a deep rotation; they’ve built a bullpen flush with intriguing arms as well. Yimi García, James Hoyt, and Richard Bleier were quietly excellent last season and return to form a solid core. To support them, Ng and co. acquired an eclectic group of relievers who’ll give Mattingly plenty of late-game options to mismanage. 

Adam Cimber, Dylan Floro, and John Curtiss were acquired from Cleveland, the Dodgers, and the Rays, respectively. Though they saw mixed success in 2020, all have previous track records of serving as average-to-good major-league relievers. At worst, they more than make up for the departures of older outgoing options Brandon Kintzler, Brad Boxberger, and José Ureña, who is now mercifully out of the same division as Ronald Acuña, Jr. 

The probable closer here is the Marlins’ next biggest free-agent addition of the offseason: Anthony Bass, who signed a two-year, $5 million deal after pitching quite well for the Blue Jays last season. Bass is a fine pitcher but an infuriating choice to be the first fish-named player of note to play for this franchise. It’s a brutal look to whiff on Mike Trout, Tim Salmon, or even Mike Carp and settle for Bass, though we suppose he’s a superior option to Derek Fisher. 

Name quality aside, this is the sort of group that’ll win ball games while teams with expensive ‘pens full of famous ex-closers like, uh, every other one in the division, will see their firemen flop. That could be a huge point of differentiation for the Marlins and if their offense to just be middle of the pack or even a bit worse, they should soar over thuis number. 

Over or Under 44%? OVER! 

We have no idea if the Marlins end up sneaking above .500 again but we do know this number is too low. It is rare to get a pitching staff of this caliber with a season win total this low. 90% or more GM’s in this league would kill to have this pitching staff. 

The 2020 version had a below-average offense, and although they did add Adam Duvall, very few of Miami’s hitters project to repeat their 2020 performance. That’s enough to slide them from a couple games above .500 to a couple games below and if that’s the case, we’ll still cash this ticket. However, at the high end of the projections, the metrics see good things for Miami’s top three starters, albeit perhaps not the three pitchers you’d guess. Sixto Sánchez, Elieser Hernandez, and Pablo López are all slated to be about 20 percent better than average on the bump. Given the trio’s lack of pro reps—and the shortened 2020 season—the algorithm only sees about 400 innings from the group. If that ends up closer to 500, Miami might see their win total bump into the 80s, keeping them on the fringes of a wild card spot once again. We rarely play overs in MLB or any sport in season win totals but this one has such great value that it must be played (Risking 3 units to win 3.24 units).

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