Pinnacle 49% -130 BET365 u50.5% -115 SportsInteraction u81.5½ -108 Bookmaker u49% +122

Posted March 23

Cleveland Indians

Season win % over/under = 50.5% or 49%

Option 1 

50.5% of 162 games is 81.81

Th3 Indians would need 82 wins or more (82-80) to cash the overs and 81 wins or less (81-81) to cash the unders.

Option 2

49% of 162 games is 79.38

The Indians would need 80 wins or more (80-82) to cash the overs and 78 wins or less (78-82) to cash the unders.

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Cleveland Indians

With all due respect to the Rockies and Pirates, it’s safe to say Cleveland had the worst offseason of any franchise. For those who remain blissfully unaware, we think it’s important to know what you may be potentially betting on so here’s a non-exhaustive list of what’s transpired with this team since last October:

They traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets for 13 bad shortstops

They finally agreed to drop their racist team name … but not completely until 2022

Their manager was embroiled in the Mickey Callaway scandal and was publicly disavowed by his own son

They cut (not traded: cut) their very good closer to save $9 million

They watched one former franchise icon sign with the Yankees and another sign with the Royals

The White Sox and said Royals got significantly better while the Twins held serve, meaning the AL Central is no longer poised to be the two-team race it once wa

At least Mrs. Lincoln seemed to enjoy the rest of the play.

Cleveland’s lineup

Despite their strong record, Cleveland’s 2020 squad was propped up entirely by its stellar pitching staff: their lineup finished just 25th in runs scored per game. To address that issue, Mike Chernoff traded his second-best hitter (and best overall player) and let his third-best hitter walk in free agency. Problem solved. 

With Lindor flashing his trademark smile in New York and Carlos Santana now a division rival, this team is down to Jose Ramirez and only Jose Ramirez when it comes to 2020 Clevelanders who produced a Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) above 100. In the interest of fairness, Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow got close (98 each), but we’re 100 words into the meat of the article and already making excuses for this roster.

Chernoff did make a shrewd move in signing Eddie Rosario to a one-year, $8 million pact, but that alone ain’t gonna cut it, and it’s hard to see where Cleveland expects more help to come from. Cesar Hernandez is a fine player but might hit first or second in this lineup. Oscar Mercado’s sophomore season was as discouraging as his rookie season was promising. Jake Bauers and Josh Naylor have yet to prove they can hit major-league pitching but look like they’ll have to assume near-everyday roles. The catchers are literally Austin Hedges and Roberto Perez. It’s dark, friends. It’s dark.

Perhaps you think one of the shortstops this team grabbed from the Mets can provide a spark but Andres Gimenez is more about floor than ceiling and Amed Rosario has a .302 OBP 1,500 PA into his career? Playing him in center field (side note: yikes) won’t change that. Banking on either of these two as a savior requires a level of delusion that even the average Browns fan may struggle to reach.

Maybe this is the year Cleveland will finally get something out of Bradley Zimmer (lol). Maybe one of Daniel Johnson, or Yu Chang, or **squints** Harold Ramirez will break out. Perhaps Nolan Jones will progress quicker than we think and save the day. But it’s more likely that this is going to be a bottom-10 offense once more, and it very well could find itself in the bottom-5.

Cleveland Starters

As always, the rotation looks to be Cleveland’s saving grace, though unlike most of us, it’s thinner than a year ago. Shane Bieber can lay credible claim to the mantle of “best pitcher in baseball” and does not turn 26 until May. Let us all hope he continues his march toward becoming the Most Relevant Bieber. Zach Plesac is a solid mid-rotation piece. Aaron Civale has routinely outperformed his peripherals. There’s a good base here.

That being said, Cleveland will need at least one of its young arms like Cal Quantrill, Triston McKenzie, or Logan Allen to excel or it could be a long season of “opener days” and a lot of Orioles Mascot Body-Double Adam Plutko. I’m not going to question this org’s track record when it comes to pitching—they’ll probably be fine—but Bieber aside, there’s a real chance this group is closer to above-average than special. That could be a problem seeing as the lineup figures to score four runs a series.

Bullpen

Sure, James Karinchak did a solid “what if Josh Hader but right-handed?” impression as a rookie, and he figures to get the first crack at saving the eight games Cleveland will lead this year. But there are a whole lot of question marks behind him. Phil Maton was lights out in 2020 but doesn’t have much of a track record. Nick Wittgren and Cam Hill were mediocre at best. The re-signed Oliver Perez is now 53 years old. Adam Cimber is now a Marlin. There’s very, very little depth here. You can bank on Corey Kluber trade consolation prize Emmanuel Clase saving the day if you want, but you’d think a nominally competing team might want to add an established option or two to a group like this. They didn’t. 

Over or under 50.5%

Cleveland perfectly represents where the sport is heading. In a five-year span Cleveland developed three of the 30 best players in the game, and they have a proven history of maximizing pitching talent: they should’ve been a friggin’ dynasty, or at worst an ever-competive also-ran. Instead, they’ve sold off the most important part of their core in order to get cheaper, just like we’ve seen the Rays, Red Sox, Rockies, Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, and others do over the past two or three years. This approach isn’t innovative or resourceful or inspiring but baseball is becoming a filler sport until football starts in September and now owners are instructing GM’s to save money and be competitive, ala Moneyball. 

Maybe Cleveland will prove so good at conjuring aces out of thin air that they can get away with this model for longer than most, but ask yourself, if the Tribe (no disrespect to anyone) can’t get it done with Lindor, Ramirez, and Corey Kluber, why would we trust them without that trio? 

The organization’s odd eagerness to give playing time to washed up veterans that may still have a little left in the tank and Quad-A guys who are fringe major leaguers on their best day during the late 2010s is the reason for the long list of names the team must sift through during the upcoming season. Cleveland is already in the middle of a 40-man roster crunch that will only get worse this year as more interesting individuals in the farm system become eligible to be selected during the Rule 5 Draft. The confinement of a limited number of prospects to an alternate training site that quickly became laden with redundancy last year was especially detrimental for Cleveland because it relies so heavily on prospect evaluation and development in order to maintain a steady flow of young, cheap, and controllable talent to create tangible contention windows. A majority of Cleveland’s top prospects have not reached the upper minors and have now gone over a calendar year without playing organized baseball. Ownership’s reluctance to spend money has alienated fans, and the front office’s flaws are equally responsible as its strengths for the optimistically mediocre position of the major league ball club in Year 1 of the post-Lindor era. There is a mountain of chips on the table for the 2021 season, and the Cleveland Baseball Team is Edward Norton in Rounders. Is there an ace up the team’s sleeve that can swing the odds in its favor? No chance...okay, slim chance this team plays .500 ball when the pitchers are going to have to hold the opposition to three runs or less more often than not.  This is an absolutely great value bet, as the Indians have a two-decade track record of being very good but the gig is over and we get a great number to go under (Risking 3.45 units to win 3).

Note: If you cannot get 50.5, we still like under 49% and if you have an account at SIA, you get a great number at 81½ with a small takeback.

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