Pinnacle -1½ +129  BET365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +121 BetOnline -1½ +125

Posted at 1:45 PM EST. 

CINCINNATI -1½ +129 over Pittsburgh

6:40 PM EST. Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker (RHP - PIT) is a decent under-the-radar pitcher but he plays for a team that is likely going to lose more than 100 games. Dude only has a handful of MLB games under his belt and while not a highly-touted prospect, he got a good long look in his MLB debut in 2020, making nine starts and two relief appearances, good for a 4.94 ERA. There are some encouraging signs that we’ll leave for another time, as this wager is about fading the Pirates (who got steamrolled in Cincinnati last year) while getting behind Cinci’s very undervalued starter.

José De León (RHP - CIN) has seen his once bright potential drop significantly over the last few years due to injuries but keep your eye on him. Dude was a top prospect with the Dodgers back in 2016/2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2018. He put up some decent stats with the Rays organization in 2019 during his first season back. His strikeout rate shined while at Triple-A and then during a brief cup of coffee with Tampa, but he gave up too many walks overall -- something that is often the case for pitchers when returning from elbow surgery.

The 28-year-old De León has only tallied 30 innings at this level and his 6 innings in 2020 were awful (6 IP, 12 ER, 11 BB, 10 K), thus not many are paying attention. We’ll point out that he fared extremely well in the Puerto Rico Winter League this offseason (3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31 K, 10 BB, 17 IP), and has demonstrated increased fastball velocity (95.1 mph in ’20 and reports of 96 mph in Winter League). In spring training, he delivered 24 K’s in 16 innings. Unlike many pitchers and hitters, dude is not rusty and we cannot overstate how significant those great winter ball innings were.

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