Pinnacle +103  BET365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 BetOnline +104

Posted at 1:45 PM EST. 

Houston +104 over L.A. ANGELS

9:38 PM EST. After starting one game for the Astros in September, and then another in the ALCS, 24-year-old Luis García (RHP - HOU) hopes to keep making starts for the team. The 6'1", 244-pound right-hander didn't let a lack of upper-minors experience hold him back last year, and despite an ugly WHIP in 5.2 spring training innings, he did strike out eight of the 27 batters he faced while only walking three. García has a plus fastball that reaches 97 mph, which he couples with a good change sitting in the low-80s. He uses deception to get strikeouts, but is still working on his control to keep the walks at bay. He has the talent to be a solid No. 4 starter but even if he struggles, one has to like the way the Astros started the season.

We’re not trusting José Quintana (LHP - LAA) for a second. He was a strong candidate for Most Obscure Non-Baseball Injury of 2020, as a cut thumb washing dishes pushed his debut to late August. A more standard injury (lat) after two outings sealed it as a lost season. Stagnant pre-2020 skills with new workload concerns nudge last year's "risky innings-eater" conclusion to more of a best-case scenario. He’ll now begin his 2021 campaign by taking on an Astros club that ranks second in OPS against LHP (.823) and third in OPS on the road (.792) since 2019. He was able to post a successful spring (14 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 15 K, 8 BB), but his xERA and dominant starts/disaster starts results have trended the wrong way even before ’20. In addition, his 21% K% between ’18 and ’19 was buoyed by a meager 8.5% swing and miss rate, and a 10% xBB% in that time (1.32 xWHIP) doesn’t make him a safe option from a WHIP perspective either. Put less emphasis on spring training results this year than ever before and then steer clear of Quintana as the chalk.

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