Pinnacle +150 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +148 BetOnline +146

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Pittsburgh +150 over CHICAGO

2:20 PM EST. Before the season began, we had a strategy to avoid the Pirates figuring they were going to lose well over 100 games. Now, we don’t want to overreact to one lousy baseball game but we cannot get away from fading Jake Arrieta (RHP - CHI) at this price. Perhaps the Cubbies put up a crooked number today and whack the Pirates but there is something to be said about winning the opener and having an “us against the world” mentality. Before we discuss Arrieta, we will tell you a little bit about Pittsburgh’s lousy starter.

The Pirates needed to build a pitching staff, Tyler Anderson (LHP - PIT) needed a job, and voila, a match made in heaven. Anderson gives the Pirates a lefty arm that should eat up innings. Remember the intrigue he had a handful of years ago as a ground-ball pitcher with good command? Neither do we. The new version is four times as likely to be disastrous than dominant but he and the Pirates are not the combination that is spotting an outrageous price.

Arrieta is nothing more than a former ace that is a shell of his former self and it's getting worse. As swings-and-misses dry up, strikeouts are evaporating. That leaves him as a sinkerballer that gets hammered; reference .634 SLG % on his sinker. Arrieta’s substantial skills slippage in recent seasons suggests he could struggle to hold a rotation spot. His skills have been sliding while his xERA has been climbing. His swing & miss rate has declined each of the past five seasons (2016-20), explaining his precipitous drop in strikeouts. The skills deterioration here mandates avoidance and makes him a huge fade target at prices like this. Jake Arrieta should be taking back big prices, not spotting them. Win, lose or draw, this is a big time overlay.

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