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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Texas +150 over KANSAS CITY

2:10 PM EST. While we like what the Royals are doing, being priced in this range is a bit steep. K.C. won its opener but they needed 11 runs to get there, as Texas put up 10 so at least we know the Rangers came out swinging some hot bats. We’ll see if that carries over against Mike Minor (RHP - KC).

Minor’s strand rate crash last year masked gains in his swing & miss rate and K%, so this wasn't as bad as the ERA (4.69) would suggest... or was it? Velocity collapse is a huge red flag (fastball averaging 89.5 MPH), which along with age, say an increase in whiffs will be short-lived. His xERA history and health grade don't inspire much confidence, either. Chances are 2021 results will look a lot like his xERA history, which is 4.45. Serviceable yes, but not worthy of this price.

New to the Rangers' starting rotation is Japanese pitcher Kohei Arihara (RHP - TEX). The 28-year-old right-hander stands 6'2" and weighs 211 pounds. He had a nice spring, making four starts over 14 frames while striking out 11 and only walking one for a nice 1.07 WHIP. That's a nice microcosm of his NPB career with the Hokkaido Fighters. He strikes out 15-20% of the batters he faces (rising to 20-25% since 2019), while hardly walking anyone. He doesn't have dominant pitches, but he has plenty of decent ones in his arsenal. He has a low-90s fastball, plus a sinker, changeup and splitter. He even throws a 70 mph curve now and then. He's more of a control guy, locating his pitches where he needs them, rather than someone trying to blow batters away. With his low walk rate and great command, dude figures to post decent WHIPs and when you can do that, you can keep your team in games.

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