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Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

KANSAS CITY -1½ +125 over Texas 

4:10 PM EST A BB% that hovers around league average is a little too high for a pitcher that doesn't get many strikeouts. While Brad Keller (RHP - KC) posted a 1.02 WHIP last season, he's yet to record an xWHIP under 1.40. A heavy ground-ball tilt and a home park that suppresses home runs (-16% LHB, -20% RHB) should help him keep the homers in check, but he has certainly been lucky that so few fly balls have left the park. We may at some point start fading Keller but not today, as the Texas Rangers are weak, its starting pitcher is weak and Keller has had great success at this park. 

Let’s discuss K.C. a bit before we discuss the pitcher they’ll face.

It’s equal parts bizarre and heartening to see a baseball organization that seems to care. In the unrelenting shitstorm that was baseball’s 2020—the COVID-prompted delay, the protracted negotiations to resume play, the callous treatment of workers by clubs looking to save a quick buck, and the season that teetered upon the edge of disaster all the way through the final game of the World Series—the Royals were a welcome exception, showing both compassion to their employees and a commitment to fielding a sorta-competent baseball team in the midst of what is a fairly massive rebuild.

Last spring, as it became clear that the closure of baseball would stretch for months rather than weeks, many franchises immediately headed to their spreadsheets, looking at ways they could trim costs in anticipation of a revenue-starved 2020. Whether through not paying minor leaguers, cutting scouting departments, or terminating stadium and club staff, most teams put the profit principle ahead of anything resembling compassion. But the Royals put them all to shame, showing that, while baseball remains a business—we are constantly reminded of this—it can be a business that displays a minimum standard of empathy with and loyalty to its workers. The team’s executives took a financial haircut while lower-paid staff—including perhaps the lowest-paid of all, minor leaguers—were kept on the payroll without a reduction in compensation. 

And beyond these admirable off-field actions, the Royals demonstrated that they care enough for the fan base and a standard of competitiveness to make moves that put them squarely above other rebuilding teams like the Pirates and Tigers. They were out in front of the free agent market, signing Mike Minor and Carlos Santana, along with useful outfielder Michael A. Taylor. They traded away a stalled prospect in Khalil Lee and stalled major leaguer in Franchy Cordero to get back Andrew Benintendi, a young player with a nearly-four-win season on his résumé. They promoted pitchers Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, the latter with not even a single pitch thrown in a league above High-A. Sure, 2020 was weird, but the Royals didn’t futz around—they thought Singer and Bubic were ready, and for the most part, they were. The karma is good and as it turns out, they couldn’t have handpicked an opponent more ripe for the picking to kick things off. 

Kyle Gibson’s (RHP - TEX) ugly season last year showed just how thin his margin for success is. All it took was his slider losing effectiveness (25.6% swing & miss to 14.9%) and worst skills versus lefties since 2014. Gibson’s xERA and xHR/F say some bad bad luck played a factor but he’s serving up gopher balls galore. Fixable problems, perhaps, but we're at the point where age raises the level of concern here and so does his continuing declining skills.

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