Houston @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND +100 over Houston

Pinnacle +100  BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -106 BetOnline -103 

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

OAKLAND +100 over Houston

10:07 PM EST. Chris Bassitt (RHP - OAK) had a sparkling 2.29 ERA in 2020, and he'll try to keep that magic going against the Astros for this opener in Oakland. Last year, Bassitt’s career-best season will lead some to escalate his value but that’s a discussion for another time, as he is not the reason for this choice. At some point, Chris Bassitt will be a fade target but his mound opponent today is far more recognizable and far more overvalued and it’s for that reason that we are playing Moneyball. 

Despite reduced velocity, Zack Greinke’s skills last season were mostly sturdy, though there are some potential coal mine canaries to keep an eye on. First, batters teed off on his tepid heater (.536 SLG). His xBB% is very skeptical of his elite command. Greinke’s xHR% says HR’s could have and should have been a bigger issue. Graceful aging might be the most likely scenario, but his smarts won't be able to outrun his diminishing stuff forever. Greinke is a thinking man’s pitcher but as he enters his age 37 season, his skills look very shaky indeed. Incidentally, he closed last year with an xERA of 6.08 in his final five starts. Let the fade Greinke strategy begin.  

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Our Pick

OAKLAND +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110