Pinnacle N/A  BET365 u55.5% -120 SportsInteraction u90.5½ -110 Bookmaker u54% -109

Posted March 26

Chicago White Sox

Season win % over/under = 55.5%

Season win total o90½ -128 

Option 1 

55.5% of 162 games is 89.91

The South Side would need 90 wins or more (90-72) to cash the overs and 89 wins or less (89-73) to cash the unders.

Option 2

Over/Under win total is u90½ -103

You know the White Sox of last year? Well, welcome to the White Sox of this year. That might seem harsh. The White Sox acted at the top of the reliever market, on the bottom of all the markets. They added one-year floaters Lance Lynn, Adam Eaton, and Carlos Rodon (whom they non-tendered in December), padding gaping holes in depth with mediocrity indicating a handcuffed budget. Andrew Vaugh appears to have a clear path to a DH role, with José Abreu firmly locked in at first following his MVP campaign. But Liam Hendriks wasn’t hugely better than departure Alex Colome last season (if you value ERA at least), and if you don’t follow the White Sox, we challenge you to name one reliever on this team whose name isn’t literally synonymous with disappointment.

Key Additions (Projected 2021 WARP): Liam Hendriks (1.4), Lance Lynn (2.7), Carlos Rodon (0.6), Adam Eaton (1.5)

Key Subtractions: James McCann (1.0), Alex Colome (0.4), Edwin Encarnacion (0.5)

It doesn’t seem so bad to be the same as a team that performed at a 95-win pace in 2021, but recall several things—the Central was the weakest of the three spheres of play in the regular season, allowing the ChiSox to beat up on the Tigers and Royals as well as the 19-win Pirates. Abreu had a career year, as did another departure in James McCann. Yasmani Grandal is arguably the best catcher in baseball, or at least the most consistent, but there’s value to always having a star performer behind the plate, as Chicago got a taste of in the short season. Tim Anderson again outshone every metric. Four pitchers posted ERA’s under 2.50 in more than 20 innings, and none seems especially likely to repeat. In other words, the White Sox repeating depends on last season not being an overperformance. The metrics aren't particularly optimistic, and we’re not sure bettors should be either. It’s hard to take the next step when the front office appeared forced to stand still.

At the mediocre level, the top three of the White Sox rotation—Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Dallas Keuchel—chip in seven Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP). At the high end, they surpass 11 WARP,  halfway bridging the gap between the two performance tiers as a trio. Their ability to overperform seems critical to the fortunes of a team whose rotation is threadbare after an offseason most teams in contention (and many not) have studiously patched in anticipation of needing innings. All of Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon, and Dylan Cease, the team’s sludgy grouping of the rotation’s back half, are projected for below-average xERA’s and even in the best case, none of them of have a plus WARP. 

There’s little in the way of a third tier of the rotation, excepting Michael Kopech, whom the team is (probably with sense, given his 2019 Tommy John surgery and resultant lack of innings in recent years) sequestering to the bullpen for now. Even if he and Liam Hendriks lock down games, the depth here pales in comparison to that of the top teams in the league. The AL Central is probably the second-weakest division in baseball behind its NL counterpart, and barely crossing 90 wins at the top of the scale highlights Chicago’s dearth of depth filling out the pitching staff. It means their season largely rides on the names mentioned to this point, far more so than a deep offense waiting for breakouts to push it over the top.

Jerry Reinsdorf is the White Sox owner, who is an absurdly wealthy 85-year-old man who owns two professional sports franchises in one of the country’s biggest markets. One of these franchises is the city’s second most famous baseball team, and for the majority of the time he has owned it, it has stunk. Jerry’s team just made the playoffs and still has an ascending core, and he sits back and watches as many of his  rivals actively choose to get worse. All he’s missing is the right person to steer the ship. Someone who can bridge your roster’s generational, racial, and ethnic divides. Someone in touch with today’s game, who can marry good old fashioned coaching with modern analytics. A man with pristine judgement and an impeccable record both on and off the diamond.

Instead, Jerry hires Tony La Russa because he’s famous, and also rich (but not compared to him), and you like him, and though a bunch of people told you not to, you’re rich! Jerry’s gotta remind the common folk that this is still your show—you can do as you damn well please. And to be fair to Jerry, nothing proves that point quite like hiring Tony LR, on purpose and in the sight of all, in the year of our lord 2021. Now let us pray for the traffic laws in and around the Greater Chicago Area. For just like advice lent to Jerry Reinsdorf, they are about to go unheeded. There is a price to pay for cutting off your nose to spite your face and Reisdorf is about to pay it.  

As bizarre, uninspired, and brazenly defiant as the hiring of La Russa may be, there’s no question that he’ll now helm one of the sports better and more exciting lineups.

The White Sox finished sixth in the majors in runs per game last year and now boast a meaningfully deeper lineup. In addition to benefiting from theoretical full campaigns from rookie standout Nick Madrigal and top prospect Andrew Vaughn, the White Sox will again enjoy the services of Adam Eaton, who inked a one-year deal to patrol right field. That trio figures to supplement a loaded offensive core that offers power, speed, average, and on-base ability, albeit from different parts of its whole.

In the power/OBP department we’ve got the newly re-signed reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu, top-5 catcher Yasmani Grandal, and post-uber-prospect Eloy Jimenez, now also supported by Vaughn. Speed more your thing? Luis Robert, Madrigal, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, and Eaton seem perfectly capable of swiping 30, 25, 20, 15, and 10 bags, respectively. And oh yeah, most of that group can go yard at a moment’s notice, too. The White Sox are going to put pressure on opposing pitching staffs and defenses in lots of ways. 

All told, the South Side is returning six of their seven hitters who posted DRC+ metrics of average or better last season: Madrigal, Abreu, Jimenez, Grandal, Anderson, and super-utilityman Leury Garcia. Based on talent, it’s fair to say that Moncada and Robert could easily join that group. It is entirely possible—perhaps not altogehter likely, but possible—that every fixture in this lineup, plus their chief backup, will provide a league-average or better bat in 2021.

Of course it’s also possible this group swings-and-misses enough to double as a wind farm, but it’s tough to see how they’ll be anything worse than a top-10 unit. This lineup comes with a lower floor than some thanks to a propensity toward striking out, but it’s hard to find many teams with higher offensive ceilings. Bears’ fans who watch this group will be physically unable to comprehend the level of offense they’re about to see. They’re all going to short-circuit in their Andy Dalton shirseys.

Over or Under 90½ wins or 55.5%?

The South Side figure to be very close to this projection, therefore we don’t see any value either way. In some ways the White Sox are the AL’s version of the Padres: a likeable, up-and-coming, largely home-grown team that makes up for its lack of Fernando Tatis Jr., with an impressive cast of ascending stars. Still, they hired TLR and a lot of things have to go right to win 91 games or more. If we had to bet, we’d likely go under the number but we’re not interested. Recommendation: Under (No wagers).

Note: Bookmaker has 54% while BET365 has 55.5%. Bookmaker is almost always in line with Pinnacle but for whatever reason, we could not find the White Sox being offered at Pinny. In any case, Bookmaker's price should tip us off about which way to lean and it's not over.

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