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Posted March 26

Colorado Rockies

Season win % over/under = 40.5% or 40%

Season win total o62½ -128 

Option 1 

40.5% of 162 games is 65.61

The Rocks would need 66 wins or more (66-96) to cash the overs and 65 wins or less (65-97) to cash the unders.

Option 2

40% of 162 games is 64.8

The Rocks would need 65 wins or more (65-97) to cash the overs and 64 wins or less (64-98) to cash the unders.

Option 3

Over/Under win total is o62½ -128

We’re not even sure where to begin because there is no bottom with this franchise: they pass straight through the earth’s crust, through the mantle, through the secret government base under Denver, through your impossibly low expectations, through the Earth’s core itself. Then they keep falling forever to what one perceives as the end. Ian Desmond’s contract is all that remains.

Colorado’s lineup

It’s worse now because, as you may have heard, the Rockies traded their best player, Nolan Arenado, to the goddamn St. Louis Cardinals of all teams. None of the players the Rockies received in the trade will help the lineup in 2021, if ever, and their in-house options to replace him include some failed and failing infield prospects. 

We could devote an entire article to the Arenado debacle, but even in a column built around hyperbole it’s difficult to overstate what a disastrous, self-inflicted mistake it was to ship him to St. Louis for a bunch of spare parts. Arenado had done everything anyone could reasonably ask of him: performed on and off the field, signed an extension, created excellent poster material, etc. That delusional Rockies owner Dick Monfort and buffoonish GM Jeff Bridich could manage to ruin their relationship with Arenado just two years after inking him to a mega-deal, we’re not even sure A-Rod could pull off that level of alienation. 

This trade is without parallel. It’s not quite akin to Cleveland’s cheap, calculated decision to rebuild via trading Franciso Lindor, nor even John Henry’s shameless play to dump Mookie Betts for tax purposes. The Rockies had already done the hard part. They’d already convinced Arenado to commit to their abomination of a franchise for more or less an at-market price. Undermining that work places Monfort and Bridich one circle further down in Baseball Hell. Factor in the defensive, horrific press conference they held post-trade and you have to push them all the way down to Judecca. 

The Rockies have a few good hitters. Trevor Story is legitimately great. Charlie Blackmon is aging gracefully. Err, Chris Owings had a promising 44-PA stint. However, every other hitter who sported a Deserved Run Created (DRC+) of 90 or better last season is gone: Kevin Pillar, Daniel Murphy, and Matt Kemp.

Perhaps this is the year Arenado’s likely replacement at third, Ryan McMahon, finally breaks out. Maybe Garrett Hampson will learn to lift the ball. This could always be the season that Brendan Rodgers—a man whose prospect eligibility has finally been exhausted after he was drafted years ago—stays healthy and … ahh nevermind, he’s already hurt. The only player of note the Rockies added to the infield this winter is Mr. Potato Head (hopefully we didn’t insult anyone) understudy C.J. Cron, who hit .190 for the Tigers last year. 

In addition to Arenado and Dahl was the departure of the Rockies’ entire catching platoon, Rockies lifer Tony Wolters and Drew Butera. And what did the Rockies add? Minor league contracts, mostly.  It’s just as bleak in the outfield. Blackmon is still producing but turns 35 in July and serves no purpose on this team. Raimel Tapia redefines the term “empty average,” as he just put up an 83 DRC+ despite hitting .321. Sam Hilliard was abysmal in limited playing time last season. And David Dahl isn’t even here to lend a false sense of hope anymore. Even if one of Tapia, Hillard, or Yonathan Daza does break out, Bridich will just trade him to the Yankees for a 19-year-old who throws hard but can’t aim.  Thus concludes our analysis of the best part of the 2021 Rockies. Eat at Arby’s. 

Colorado’s starters

To entertain notions of actually watching any of these pitchers beyond German Marquez should put you on the no-fly list. You’d assume Marquez is destined for a mid-season trade, as he’s unlikely to still be dealing when the Rockies are next competitive in 2064. But doesn’t it feel like they’re going to mess this up, too? 

The dream of Staff Ace Jon Gray is dead. Kyle Freeland had one lucky year. Antonio Senzatella just had the best year of his career (pacing for 2.5 WARP) … in the service of a team with a .433 winning percentage. Even the good pitching performances the Rockies luck into every few years are as meaningless as they are short-lived. To add to this sad group, the Rockies brought in failed pitching prospect Robert Stephenson, who they received in exchange for failed pitching prospect Jeff Hoffman. And then of course we have Austin Gomber, who’s the best player the Rockies received in exchange for Arenado. There’s no joke here because that is the joke. Colorado traded a franchise icon to watch Wade Miley 2.0 spend his cheap years in Coors. 

Over or Under 40.5?

As much as the Rockies are so obviously a mile-high mess big enough to be seen from space, the men in charge of the team have pressed on as if there’s nothing amiss at all. The team leadership has been unapologetic about those moves, not even caring to dress it up in terms of rebuilding or retooling or whatever re-formed verb is doing the heavy lifting for fielding a non-competitive team these days. Team owner Dick Monfort had the gall to blame the team’s recent poor showing on … the team itself for underperforming, and not on misapplied resources, while Jeff Bridich, in a fit of deflection so powerful it bent spacetime, Matrix-style, insinuated that he was above criticism because his job is so complicated that none of us rudderless jabbering smooth-brains could possibly comprehend it. The Rockies players, as players who have been in this situation before them, will show up to do their jobs as best they can and hope fervently for the trade winds to blow in their direction. However, given the level of contempt with which these men–the leaders of the organization–seemingly treat everyone who isn’t them, it’s hard to imagine that dysfunction not trickling down to reach the field level. And until they get on the same page with everyone else who’s not trying to fool anyone about what a mess the Rockies are, it’s impossible to see how this franchise can move forward, on the field or off of it. Recommendation: Under 40.5% (No bets).

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