San Francisco @ OAKLAND
San Francisco +144 over OAKLAND

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST

San Francisco +144 over OAKLAND

9:40 PM EST. Chris Bassitt (RHP - OAK) brings a fluky 2.92 ERA into this start. Fluky because he’s had help from an 82% strand rate. His 4.70 xERA suggests he's the same pitcher he's always been. He's also had some gopher ball problems vs. left-handed batters, allowing 18 HR over 409 PA to LHB since 2019, compared to 9 HR in 413 PA vs. RHB, and that could be an issue Friday as he faces a trio of tough SF lefties (Brandon Belt, Alex Dickerson, and Mike Yastrzemski). Bassitt’s swing and miss rate continues to be well below average and his ball % doesn’t come close to supporting the 14 walks he’s issued in 49 frames. At age 31, dude is still very mediocre but he’s prioced like he’s not.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty to like about Logan Webb (RHP - SF). In just 18 career starts in the majors, Webb has already established remarkable consistency in his strikeout skills (both his rate and swing and miss rate), as well as his ground ball rate. And because that groundball rate is so high, he can get by with an average-to-below-average strikeout rate.Another reason to feel optimistic is that his numbers are still being skewed by two particularly bad starts against Texas and Oakland where he issued 9 walks over 8 innings. Over his last five starts, Webb has walked eight and struck out 26 batters in 25 innings. His ERA over that span is 6.12 but his xERA over that span was bordering on elite at 3.39. We get the superior starter in line for improvement against a starter that is a prime candidate for regression. The Giants can hit too.

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Our Pick

San Francisco +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)

No Run in First Inning -105