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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

Boston +100 over MIAMI

1:10 PM EST. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP - BOS) has allowed only two earned runs in his past 10 innings. Over that span, Eovaldi has walked one batter while striking out 10. Behind his near-5.00 ERA is this collection of strong skills: 8.7 K’s/9, 1.6 BB’s/9, 47% grounders and a very nice xERA of 3.80. His command sub-indicators all are supportive of his top-flight command. Eovaldi is dealing it right now with a 20% swing and miss rate over his last two starts and he’ll now face a Marlins’ squad that owns a weak .684 OPS at home and have struggled against RHP with a .703 OPS. 

Jose Ureña (RHP - MIA) has struggled in his first two starts, allowing eight runs in 9 innings with a BB/K split of 7/4. Ureña can’t find the plate and he’s not inducing swing and misses either with a 6.1 % rate. Urena has only started twice this year. Prior to a back injury last season that cost him 3 months, his poor strikeout rate and so-so control justified his lousy ERA/WHIP. Amazingly, he closed upon return, but don't let a tiny September sample fool you. His sinker-heavy approach induces grounders and limits jacks, but tepid Ball% and swing and miss rate combined with no plus pitch to lean on, gives Urena little hope for success in the rotation or the pen. Observe from a safe distance and then play the strong value here. That would be Boston.

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