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Posted at 11:00 AM EST

COLORADO -1½ +250 over the Dodgers

8:40 PM EST. The Dodgers became the first team in Major League Baseball to clinch a spot in the postseason when they defeated the Padres 7-5 on Wednesday. Although it was inevitable, there is still a sense of relief and perhaps we can catch the Dodgers in a letdown spot after a great series in San Diego and tehn catching the red-eye to Colorado.  

Julio Urías (LHP - LAD) has a tough matchup against the Rockies in Coors Field. Urias has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA in three starts, while the Rockies have been monsters in Coors Field where they have a .803 OPS. Urias’ 3.53 ERA is also misleading, as he has an average swing and miss rate of 11% but that rate has dropped to 6.7% over his last two starts. Fatigue? It just might be. The Dodgers have been very careful with Urías the past couple seasons, but in 2020, especially in a shortened season, expectations were that he would more or less be turned loose. He was up to 90 pitches by his second start, and appeared well on his way to a big year, but now nine starts in, he's the owner of a 4.93 xERA after pitching half the time at Chavez Ravine. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates are also trending wrong over his last five starts at 36%/26%/41%. Urias’ durability or lack thereof has always been a concern and now we’re seeing all of his skills going the wrong way. Throw Coors Field into the equation and Urais could be in for a very rough outing. 

Kyle Freeland (LHP - COL) has a sparkling 2.83 ERA in night games, to go along with a very respectable  4.22 ERA in Coors. The Dodgers have a .759 OPS on the road and only a .718 OPS against LHP.  Freeland is doing a great job at limiting exit velocity and barrels. His average exit velocity has declined from 89.5 mph in 2019 to 85.8 mph in 2020. His barrel rate has shown an even steeper improvement (2.0% barrel% in 2020, 8.8% barrel% in 2019). There remains some profit potential here and in this spot against an overrated starter for the Dodgers, we’ll play the reverse run line at this accommodating venue.

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