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Posted at 2:00 PM EST

BALTIMORE +155 over Atlanta

7:35 PM EST. Keegan Akin (LHP - BAL) is a solidly-built lefty that was a second round collegiate pick in 2016 and that has made a steady ascent through the minors, moving up a level each season. His two best pitches are a low 90s fastball and a change that is a borderline "plus" offering, with his third choice being a slider that still needs work to be a reliable weapon. His main weakness at Triple-A in 2019 was walking too many batters, and that has been the undoing of many young hurlers. Until he can get his control trimmed down, he’s riskier than we like but that’s why we’re getting such a great price. His handedness and solid fastball/change combo, however, speak to his eventual upside. Akin has 16 K’s in 14 frames and the Braves rank 22nd in OPS against southpaws. That said, Akin is not our target here. 

Does Cole Hamels (LHP - BAL) really deserve to be in the -175 range? We don’t think so. Just before the season started back in late August, Hamels ended up on the 45-day injured list due to left triceps tendinitis. He makes his season debut here and he’s the same price as Jacob deGrom because why? Hamels is 36-years old with 2700 innings under his belt. Dude was humming along in the 1st half of last year until an oblique strain in late June trimmed five weeks off his season. After that, he was all over the place: Ball%, control spiked; lost half a tick; groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates went haywire. Then shoulder fatigue kept him out another two weeks in September. Caveat emptor my friends, which means that the buyer alone is responsible for checking the quality and suitability of goods before a purchase is made.

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