Pinnacle -107 BET365 -110  SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -110 Coolbet -110

Posted at 2:00 PM EST

Cleveland -107 over CHICAGO

8:15 PM EST. Aaron Civale (RHP - CLE) has been undone by rates around the margins over his last three starts but in terms of your bankroll, Civale should not sit this one against the Cubs. Only the Tigers and Brewers have higher strikeout rates against RHPs. Prior to the Cubs scoring 12 times against Milwaukee on Sunday, they had been enduring a shaky September and a .649 OPS. Civale’s 3.88 ERA, 56 K’s and 10 walks in 58 frames are all supported by his elite swing and miss rate and batted ball profile. Dude is legit.

John Lester (LHP - CHC) evenly priced here is preposterous. The best news is that Lester is coming off his best start of the season and will now face a scuffling Indians offense, a Cleveland club which struggles against port-siders (.650 OPS), and a collection of bats he has fared well against in past meetings (current CLE batters own a .597 OPS against Lester). That was then, this is now but trend bettors do not care. We’re here to assure you that Lester’s past success means about as much as David Duval winning the US Open in 2001. Lester's 7.7% swing and miss rate along with his declining velocity still places him high on our fade list. In his last outing, a good one, ensures we get to fade him at a rate we cannot refuse.

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