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Posted at 2:30 PM EST

Cincinnati -115 over ST. LOUIS

8:10 PM EST. The total here is 7½, which is why we’re reluctant to spot 1½-runs but the value on the reduced rate to win straight up makes the Reds very playable here.

Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) has elite skills. He has continued his change-up heavy approach, which is working well with a 24% swing & miss rate with the pitch. Missing bats with his four-seam fastball (17%) and slider (15% ) say that his 60 K’s in 43 frames is a fact. He has peppered the zone early with a 67% first-pitch strike rate too. With three pitch offerings above a 50% groundball rate, his slider (71% GB%), change-up (63% GB%), and four-seam fastball (50% GB%) can keep the ball in the park and his ERA under control. Dude owns the third-lowest FIP in the majors but he’s priced like he doesn’t.

The reason the Reds and specifically Castillo are short-priced here is because Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) has a 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP but the results have been built on luck (22% hit rate, 78% strand rate) and a level of control he hasn't owned since 2014; his 4.28 xERA says regression is coming. That walk stinginess will be put to the test against the Reds, who have one of the best walk rates in the business. The Reds are playing well while the Cardinals are playing a lot (2 doubleheaders in the past 3 days). Underlay.

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