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Posted at 4:00 PM EST

Baltimore +167 over N.Y. METS

7:10 PM EST. Since moving from the pen to the starter’s role, Jorge Lopez (RHP - BAL) has not surrendered a single jack over 10 frames. He also has a nifty 52%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. He’s still trying to find his role but he’s utilized a sinker-heavy mix to induce groundballs and get outs. We’ll live with whatever Lopez delivers because this is a straight fade against Rick Porcello (RHP - NYM).

With a move to New York in the offseason, Porcello looked to rebound from his 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 174 IP in 2019. The rebound has not happened, as he has one win, 33 strikeouts, a 5.54 ERA, and a 1.46 WHIP in 33 IP. Are there any positive signs lying below the surface. No. His below-average swing and miss rate from 2019 has fallen farther in 2020. A sinker-first approach (4.4% swing and miss) has cut into his swing and miss. His 32% career hit % and 69% career strand rate argue for a little better luck, but his Hard Hit% allowed is in the 32nd percentile in MLB. His xSLG% allowed is also below average in the 22nd percentile. With a 12% career HR/F, his current HR/F may tick up. Even with some fortune regression, his ERA may finish above 5.50. While the switch to New York brought talk of a possible rebound, Porcello's profile doesn't inspire much confidence in that. Everything is below average and he does not offer many groundball-heavy pitches. Rick Porcello and/or the Metropolitans may win here but Porcello cannot be prioced like he’s Yu Darvish.

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