Cincinnati @ CHICAGO
Cincinnati -104 over CHICAGO

Pinnacle -104 BET365 -110 SportsInteraction -110 5DIMES -107  Bookmaker -108

Posted at 12:20 PM EST

Cincinnati +100 over CHICAGO

8:15 PM EST. We bet against Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) last game against the Cardinals when he was a -154 favorite. We ended up ripping up our ticket, as the Reds would hang on for a 5-4 win and now Mahle goes from being a -154 favorite to evenly priced against an equivalent team. That’s value to be sure. 

Mahle has actually thrown a strong game in two of his last four starts, including a beauty versus the Cubs on 28. His elevated 53% fly-ball % has led to the long ball being a problem, as he’s allowed five jacks across his last three starts. However, the total here is 8, meaning the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, which can August only serve Mahle well. There are some promising signs in Mahle’s profile. Dude has posted career highs in both his 10.5 K’s/9 and 14% swing and miss rate.

Alec Mills (RHP - CHC) will be taking on the Reds for the third time this season. That can’t be good for him. The previous two starts against Cinci resulted in a disaster and near disaster. Overall, Mills has surrendered four jacks and six runs in nine combined innings versus Cincinnati this season. Three of his last four starts have resulted in a similar story. Alec Mills is not able to miss many bats (7.7% swing and miss rate) and that has correlated into a poor strikeout rate. In his last five starts he has allowed seven jack and he is getting hit hard by left-handed batters, as they own a strong .818 OPS against him.

 

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Our Pick

Cincinnati -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110