Texas @ SEATTLE
Texas +138 over SEATTLE

Pinnacle +138 BET365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +136  Bookmaker +135

Posted at 1:30 PM EST

Texas +138 over SEATTLE

4:10 PM EST. Kolby Allard (LHP - TEX) posted a disaster start against the Mariners on August 21, but has delivered back-to-back decent starts since. The Mariners offense ranks last in OPS against LHP this season (.598) and are one of the worst units at home as well (.642 OPS). Allard brings some strikeout elements to the table. He's generated a 10.9% swing & miss rate and 8.3 K’s/9, which bodes well for today based on the Mariners near league worst 72% contact rate against LHP. Kolby Allard was acquired in a deadline deal and was decent for five August starts last year but faded badly in September. The prospect shine has worn off a bit over the past two seasons but a velocity and strikeout bump at least offers hope that strikeout gains are coming. Only 22, he's worth backing as a significant underdog against a starting pitcher that cannot be favored in this range.

Marco Gonzales (LHP - SEA) has dropped his ERA to 3.09 but that mark comes with very little backing (4.64 xERA). Gonzales indeed throws strikes, which counts for something but his fastball tops off at 89 MPH, his swing and miss rate is under 10% and his batted ball profile of 36% grounders, 20% line-drives and 44% fly-balls is as pedestrian as it gets. Gonzalez faced the Rangers on August 11th and yielded four earned runs over 5 innings with 2 K’s and 1 BB. We understand that the Rangers are ice-cold with a 13-26 record and the M’s have won five straight but a correction is coming because Texas isn’t this bad and Seattle isn’t this good. Aside from that, Gonzales is almost always priced as an underdog and today he’s in the 7½-5 range. That can’t be, overlay.

 

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Our Pick

Texas +138 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.76)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110