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Posted at 11:30 AM EST

Detroit +179 over MINNESOTA

2:10 PM EST. Overall, the Twins rank 22nd in OPS this season. It’s 25-16 record is misleading and is a direct result of them going 17-4 at home (8-12 on the road) which means a correction (to the bad) to their home record is very likely. Twinkies’ hitters strike out an average of nine times per game. This is a vulnerable offense that gets way too much market credit. It’s an all or nothing offense that will face Casey Mize (RHP - DET) here.

Mize has struck out 13 batters in 11 innings while giving up eight earned runs and three jacks. Mize is getting his feet wet at this level, as is every one of Detroit’s young starting pitching prospects. Mize is unlikely to throw more than 75 or 80 pitches, as he’s on a strict count so we’ll live with whatever he delivers. The kid has nasty stuff and will be a mainstay in the Tigers rotation sometime in the near future but for now, he’s learning on the go. He could thrive in this start or he could get rocked. That’s the chance one takes but this is a good chance because Rich Hill (LHP - MIN) cannot be priced like he’s Shane Bieber.

Rich Hill has only reached five innings in two of his four starts. The southpaw takes on a Detroit club that has been successful versus LHP with a top-five OPS against them. Hill has a pathetic 6.1% swing and miss rate, a 31% line-drive rate and walked 10 and struck out 10 in 16 innings. Rich Hill is a 39-year-old lefty that the Dodgers couldn’t wait to get rid of last year. If the Twins make the playoffs, there is a good chance you won’t see this stiff anywhere near the mound. Eight IL stints, since 2016, a boatload of mileage and turning 40 curbs his upside to the point where he’s among the worst in the biz. Again, Rich Hill cannot be a 2-1 favorite against a young and talented Tigers’ team that loves coming to the park.

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