Pinnacle -1½ +140 BET365 -1½ +140 SportsInteraction -1½ +140 5DIMES -1½ +140  Bookmaker -1½ +140 

Posted at 11:15 AM EST

St. Louis -1½ +140 over CHICAGO

7:08 PM EST. The first thing to note about this ESPN Sunday Night game is that the total is 12½, which means the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. That’s good news for spotting -1½ runs against Jon Lester (LHP - CHC) and his weak skills. Lester has posted a 6.92 ERA with two disaster starts in his last five games. The other three were not so good either. We have written frequently about Lester’s declining skills and we’re not about to stop our attack here. Lester has a 5.4% swing & miss rate, which is in the bottom tier among starters with 20 innings or more this season. Lester’s batted ball profile, swinging strikes and ball % are all trending the wrong way. Lester’s 5.88 xERA, 41% fly-ball%, and a Barrel% allowed in the 14th percentile warns of possible ERA inflation risk. In 11 IP vs. STL in 2019, he had a 7.36 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP. Lester is pure fade material.

Dakota Hudson (RHP - St. L) has the highest groundball rate (61%) among all starters with 20 or more innings pitched. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, that alone makes the Cardinals worthy of a play. Hudson’s extreme ground ball tilt helped him allow just one home run between Triple-A and the majors in 2018, and to get out of trouble by inducing 20 double plays in 2019. This year, Hudson has a 67% first-pitch strike rate. In his last start, he whiffed seven and walked none. He has a 2.27/3.36 ERA/xERA split and now he’s evenly priced against Lester? What a bargain. Play the Cardinals at a pick-em if you like, as that’s great value too. We’re playing the run-line.

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