Cincinnati @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH +125 over Cincinnati

Pinnacle +125 BET365 +125 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +125  Bookmaker +122 

Posted at 11:55 AM EST

PITTSBURGH +125 over Cincinnati

7:05 PM EST. Trevor Williams (RHP - PIT) isn’t in great form (on paper) and has an iffy history against current Cincinnati bats (.860 OPS) but we don’t care. Under the hood, Williams has decent numbers across the board. Dude has a solid BB/K split of 12/32 over 34 innings with a 12.2% swing and miss rate. His swing & miss rate was 14% over his last two starts. His groundball rate last start was 58% and is now up to 46% on the year. Finally, Trevor Williams has a 4.41 xERA but he’s been pitching much better with the numbers to support it to produce a 3.32 xERA over his last two starts. He’ll now pitch at PNC against a Cincinnati club that has struggled on the road (.650 OPS). 

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - CIN) in this price range is absurd. Dude has looked lost over his last three starts and in fact, has looked lost practically his entire career. We’re not sure if he has dead arm syndrome or if he’s lost his confidence or what but he’s been tagged for 18 runs and 29 base runners over his last 10 innings.  That’s not a typo either. 29 baserunners over 10 innings is equivalent to pitching with the bases jammed up every inning. Furthermore. current Pirates bats own a 1.210 OPS against the Reds right-hander. Big time overlay here.

 

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110