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Posted at 12:35 PM EST

Texas +121 over SEATTLE

9:10 PM EST. Yusei Kikuchi’s (LHP - SEA) transition last year from Japan to MLB fell woefully short of his mid-level starting pitcher projection. His 2nd half ball%/control gains helped, and his xHR/F says the level of gopheritis he suffered was a bit unfair. There's a foothold for recovery, but not enough to make him favorite worthy until he finds something better. In five starts this year, Kikichi has an unappealing 1.40 WHIP. His 12.5% swing and miss rate is decent but it’s not strong enough to support the 27 K’s he has in 25 innings. His 51% first-pitch strike rate means more walks than the average BB's/9 he has issued are inevitable. Kikuchi's 2017 skills appear to be the anomaly, and his below-average xERA is in line with his other years in Japan. So far, his negative ROI and shaky and poor results are indicative of his below-average skills. Not interesting in the least as the chalk. 

Kyle Cody (RHP - TEX) missed all of 2019 and virtually the entirety of 2018 due to elbow woes, so any useful past stats are from way back in 2017. A sixth round pick out of Kentucky in 2016, Cody's pre-injury stats were pretty good and included a 3.23 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 178.1 innings. Standing 6-7 and 225 pounds, he has accumulated a 10 K’s/9 career strikeout rate by utilizing a 97 mph fastball, an above average slider, and a changeup that is still a work in progress. Despite the nice peripherals and raw talent, we're still talking about a guy who has missed the last two seasons and hasn't pitched above Single-A prior to this season so the time to buy would be now. Cody has appeared in just three games this year covering 4.1 innings, all in relief. He has allowed just one hit, has struck out six and has also recorded a 15% swing and miss rate with 71% of balls in play being grounders. The sample size is too small but the early returns are terrific. Kyle Cody has always tantalized scouts with his stuff but he has struggled with health and control before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2018. He appears healthy now and could be a real strong sleeper. In any event, taking back a price against the Mariners always has a strong chance to pay off and it just so happens that this starter for Texas might be really good.

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