Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH +148 over Chicago

Pinnacle +148 BET365 +145 SportsInteraction +143  5DIMES +145 CoolBet +142

Posted at 12:20 PM EST.

PITTSBURGH +148 over Chicago   

7:05 PM EST. Chad Kuhl (RHP - PIT) has tossed what we call a disaster in each of his last two starts in which he has a horrendous 2/7 K/BB. He has allowed at least one HR in each of his four starts. His 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP look nice, but they are the result of a 18% hit rate  and 91% strand rate.  The underlying skills he is showing this season don't come with much promise (4.80 xERA, 4 BB’s/9, 7.2 K’s/9). Chad Kuhl will get blown up at some point and it could occur here but we’ll let the chips fall where they may because Jon Lester’s (LHP - CHC) skills are in a rapid decline, he’s hanging by a thread and the price here is bordering on absurd.

Lester faced the Pirates back on August 2, where he allowed only one run across six innings. That’s nice, it really is but Lester must rely on pure luck to get folks out. Over his last 14 innings, Lester has been tagged for 26 hits and 14 earned runs. Prior to that, in his previous 14 innings, he was tagged for 14 hits and just six runs. What was the difference? NOTHING. No difference, other than all the hard hit balls in the latter 14-inning stretch were hit right at people. The strikeout rate was exactly the same and it’s weak. Lester is averaging a meagre 5 K’s/9 to go along with his 5.7% swing and miss rate. He definitely is feeling the effects of his diminishing skills as his 41% fly-ball rate has led to allowing seven jacks in his six starts. The opposing Pirates have a poor record but are hitting left-handed pitching well with a .279 BA and .790 OPS. If all the balls in play are hit at people, well, so be it.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110