St. Louis @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +123 over St. Louis

Pinnacle -1½ +123 BET365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +116 5DIMES -1½ +120 Coolbet -1½ +120

Posted at 12:20 PM EST

CINCINNATI -1½ +125 over St. Louis 

6:40 PM EST. Sonny Gray (RHP - CIN) has 55 K’s in 42 innings with a 1.94/2.74 ERA/xERA split. His epic start has featured electric skills and results. He’s created an absurd swing and miss rate with all of his pitches and his pinpoint control seems locked in. His xERA backs it all up. Sonny Gray’s world-class skills make him a worthy candidate to be spotting runs with the home side. We get Sonny Gray and the Reds at a true discount here because the Cardinals starter has good “surface” stats. It’s time for a correction.  

Kwang-Hyun Kim (LHP - STL) faced the Reds once already this season back on August 22, a start in which he went six scoreless innings. He has only allowed one earned run across his three starts, however his success has been led by the combination of a low 20% hit rate and a high and unsustainable 93% strand rate. His skills have been brutal (6.05 xERA, 3.8 K’s/9, 7.5% swing and miss rate) and so is his batted ball profile of 39% grounders, 30% line-drives and 31% fly-balls. Kim has started three games this year. His first one was at Wrigley with the wind blowing in and he lasted 3.2 innings and allowed just one run. His second start was at home against these same Reds and the third one was also at Busch against the Pirates. Dude has lived a charmed life with weak skills and it’s about to get blown up at unforgiving Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. 

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -1½ +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110