Washington @ BOSTON
Washington -102 over BOSTON

Pinnacle -102 BET365 -105 SportsInteraction -105 5DIMES -101 Coolbet -105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Washington -102 over BOSTON

1:35 PM EST. Boston beat Washington yesterday 5-3 and unless you watched that game, you likely have no idea how incredibly fortunate Boston was to win.

Washington had 11 hits, Boston had 9.

Washington drew seven walks (!), Boston drew zero.

Washington’s hitters left 31 (!) on base, Boston’s hitters left eight.

The Red Sox pulled a massive rabbit out of their hats last night and used six relievers in the process. We’re not sure what relievers are available today but Boston will assuredly be going back to their battered pen after Zach Godley (LHP - BOS) gets knocked out again. Besides a few strikeouts (8.8 K/9), Godley has been a complete disaster (7.29 ERA, 6.88 xERA, 3.8 BB/9, 3.1 HR/9). Godley is getting progressively worse too. In his last start, his swing and miss rate was 7.9%. Over his last three starts, his swing and miss rate has dropped from 11.2% to 9.3% to 7.9%. His velocity has also dropped to an average of 90.9 MPH on his fastball. This looks to be a pitcher in serious trouble, yet he and the Red Sox are favored today because why?

We could tell you all about Austin Voth (RHP - WAS) and it wouldn’t be the best report but we do not care, as this is a straight fade against the Red Sox and Godley simply because we get the vastly superior team (offense, defense, pitching) at a hitter’s park with the total being 11. Incidentally, Voth is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA and that’s one of the reasons the Red Sox are getting some market love today. Voth missed six weeks with arm fatigue last year, but showed improved K’s and control. He relies primarily on a four-seamer, but three secondary pitches get 20% swing and misses and fewer fly-balls, giving him potential weapons vL and vR. Boston favored here is completely incorrect. Washington was favored last night but the “efficient market” said no.

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Our Pick

Washington -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110