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Posted at 12:00 PM EST

Baltimore +145 over TORONTO

6:37 PM EST. Alex Cobb (RHP - BAL) has only struck out 22 batters in 31 frames but that’s not his game. Dude has a wicked splitter that has induced a remarkable and sustainable 65% groundball rate. At this bandbox in Buffalo, inducing grounders has to be a good thing and so we’re more than satisfied to grab Cobb and the Orioles at this inflated price. Cobb brings his very respectable 3.77/4.13 ERA/xERA split to this start.

Taijuan Walker (RHP - TOR) was acquired by the Blue Jays in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations in a trade with the Mariners. He’ll now make his first start for his new team and one has to figure he’ll have some butterflies. Regardless of whether or not he’s nervous, he’s just not good enough right now to be priced in this range. He pitched three of his five starts at Safeco Field, which is a complete pitcher’s park so one cannot put too much emphasis on a small, five-game sample size. Walker brings a 4.00/4.42 ERA/xERA to this start. He’s lost the last two years to Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder procedure. Prior to injury, his command was in the midst of a troubling decline, and his swing and miss erosion didn't point to impending K-rate boost. Walker’s 7.6% swing and miss rate does not come close to supporting his 25 K’s in 27 frames this year. His rising fly-ball rate (41%), declining groundball rate (36%), and xERA/xWHIP split remind us health isn't the only concern. The Blue Jays bought when his stock was high. Don't make the same mistake.

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