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Posted at 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh +169 over MILWAUKEE

8:10 PM EST. Jonathan Brubaker (RHP - PIT) made the Pirates Opening Day roster out of their pen. The right-handed starter can give the team innings however they are needed. He only pitched 27.2 innings in 2019 due to elbow and forearm issues, but he is healthy now. He put up good numbers in Triple-A last year when he did pitch and he’s put up very decent numbers this year. Brubaker has struck out 16 batters in 15 frames. He has four pitches that he throws. His  fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he provides it with good extension. His upper-80s slider is his next-best pitch, an above average offering with a hard break. His curve and change-up are behind those two pitches, but he still can use them to keep hitters off balance. Brubaker has a strong 67% first-pitch strike rate and he’s gaining confidence with each passing start. He’s not going deep into games because the Pirates plan is to limit all their starters while they wait for the future but this kid has plenty upside. We’ll take four or five good innings. 

This wager is more about fading Brett Anderson priced in the 2-1 range. Anderson’s 3.52 ERA is pretty on paper but it’s all smoke and mirrors. Dude has a 6.6% swing and miss rate. His 81% strand rate is preventing his ERA from blowing up. Right now he’s posting a positive ROI but his skills metrics say it's not going to last much longer. Brett Anderson was the only starting pitcher in baseball last year with a K-rate lower than 5 K’s/9 (min. 175 IP), while both his xERA and xWHIP point to rising ratios. Anderson cannot be priced like he’s Brandon Woodruff. 

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