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Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

CINCINNATI +115 over Chicago

Kyle Hendricks (RHP - CHC) has been his usual self, mining success from a walk-stingy approach (0.9 BB’s/9 66% first-pitch strike rate), but he may run into some trouble here, as the Reds are patient (11% team walk rate) and have been very tough at home (.824 OPS, 5.5 runs per game), and Hendricks has a 5.15/5.11 road ERA/xERA since the start of 2019. It all looks good on paper for Hendricks but he’s much riskier than most think, especially on the road and we’re not sure he deserves to be the chalk here. 

Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) isn't attracting much market interest but he put up some very nice skills in both the first and second half of 2019. Also, take a look at his monthly groundball rate over his final four months of 2019: 39%, 48%, 50%, 52%. He does a good job of attacking the strike zone and he missed bats at a solid rate in the second half last year. He’s striking out more batters than ever (11.6 K’s/9, 14% swing and miss rate) this year with 21 in 16 frames. There's a lot to like about Mahle and there’s also a lot to like about the Reds taking back a tag at home.

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