Pinnacle -1½ +132 BET365 -1½ +130 SportsInteraction -1½ +125 5DIMES -1½ +130 Coolbet -1½ +130

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

CHICAGO -1½ +131 over Kansas City

8:10 PM EST. We’re going to trust that we’re getting the White Sox at a bargain here because of the starting pitching matchup. On the surface, it looks like Danny Duffy (LHP - KC) and his 3.99 ERA has a big edge over Reynaldo Lopez (RHP - CHW) and his 13.50 ERA. Truth is, Duffy does not. 

Lopez has only pitched four innings this year so the sample size that has produced his 13.50 ERA is tiny and means nothing. In four innings, he’s still struck out four batters and they have not hit him hard (8% line-drive rate). After a miserable 1st half last year,  Lopez made a mechanical adjustment that sparked an uptick in velocity and much better Ball%/Ctl. An emphasis on high fastballs contributed to a swing and miss rate boost that hints at further K-rate upside. His xHR/F says he had enough gas to get away with that approach. Now add some consistency and the fact that this opponent ranks dead last in the majors in OPS versus righties and Lopez might be alright. 

Danny Duffy has struck out 34 batters in 29 innings and has walked just nine, however, his 10% swing and miss rate does not come close to supporting all those K’s. Duffy also has a very average batted ball profile of 34% grounders, 20% line-drives and 46% fly-balls. On August 24th, Duffy was experiencing fatigue in his left forearm and the Royals were not even sure if he was going to be ready for this start. Dude is no stranger to the IL, as he missed the first month of last season with shoulder tightness then four more weeks in August with a balky hamstring. As a fly-ball pitcher, Duffy will try and avoid his 2018 & 2019 HR onslaught but we’re not convinced he can against the White Sox. In recapping, there are several reasons to avoid Danny Duffy: this start was pushed back because of forearm tightness, his 46% fly-ball rate is a bad match for Guaranteed Rate Field (+23% LHB HR, +7% RHB HR), and the White Sox have one of the league's best offenses, with even better results at home (.826 OPS) and against LHP (1.004). Massive offensive edge to the host.

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